Intel Stock Could Have a Turnaround Opportunity if These 3 Catalysts Deliver

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) is $117.05 over the next 12 months. That means 26.38% upside from $92.62. Our model rates the stock a buy with 70% confidence, which we read as fairly high conviction.

The upside depends on three catalysts: the Intel 18A ramp, accelerating Data Center and AI demand, and a foundry business that can win outside customers. If all three deliver, the recent pullback would sit within a real turnaround.

Intel Gave Back 14% in a Month Despite Record Growth

Intel shares have fallen 8.31% over the past week and 14.43% over the past month. Still, the stock is up 151.84% year to date and stands about 34.7% below its 52-week high of $142.35.

On Monday, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), a longtime bear, upgraded Intel to neutral from underweight. Intel’s third-quarter report is expected after the close on October 29.

The last earnings report was strong. Q2 revenue came in at $16.13 billion (+25.4% YoY), ahead of estimates for $14.45 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 exceeded the $0.22 consensus. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it the “strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years.”

Why Bulls See $129 Within Reach

Catalyst 1: 18A execution. Intel 18A output ran about 25% above target, and the cost of the main Panther Lake chip has dropped roughly 50% year to date.

Catalyst 2: AI data center demand. Data Center and AI revenue grew 59% year-over-year and generated $2.5 billion in operating profit. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner expects the custom ASIC business to move from about a $2 billion run rate to $4 billion.

Catalyst 3: Foundry customers. The 14A PDK 0.9 was on track for October, and the EMIB-T packaging backlog keeps growing. The bull case puts the stock at $129.15. Wall Street’s consensus target is $117.37.

Foundry Losses Remain the Biggest Risk

Intel Foundry still lost $2.1 billion last quarter, and external foundry revenue was only $293 million. Capital spending for 2026 is set to top $20 billion, and management expects PC demand to go down by low double digits. Analyst ratings lean toward caution, with 32 Hold ratings.

Most of the GAAP loss of $2.16 per share came from a $12.53 billion non-cash charge linked to the CHIPS Act escrow, while operating cash flow reached $7 billion. The bear case puts the stock at $90.82.

Intel Trades at a Premium to AMD and NVIDIA

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) competes with Intel directly in server and PC CPUs. It trades at 40x forward earnings, and revenue grew 50.11% last quarter. AMD is growing faster at a lower multiple, which makes Intel’s premium look like a payment for a recovery that hasn’t finished yet.

Intel considers NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) as both a partner and an investor. Shares trade at 25x forward earnings while revenue grew 105.85%.

On PEG, Intel falls in line with its peers, so the 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable, though it assumes Intel keeps growing earnings quickly.

Execution Momentum Tips the Scale Toward Upside

I’m staying with a $117.05 24/7 Wall St. price target and a buy rating at 70% confidence. What tips the scale for me is Intel’s run of 4 consecutive EPS beats.

I’d grow more constructive if the Q3 report confirms the 18A yield increases and lands a named external foundry customer. I’d turn cautious if foundry losses widen or data center growth stalls. Overall, the setup favors more upside.

These projections assume Intel keeps executing its current strategy. A decision on high-volume production for 14A, or a pause in that node, could drive the results well above or below these figures.

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