The All-In Podcast Flags Red Flags in Anthropic’s IPO. What Everyday Investors Should Know
The All-In hosts spotted numbers in Anthropic's Investor Day presentation that raised serious questions, and the valuation multiple they flagged would demand a lot from buyers who show up on day one. Here is what retirement investors and Microsoft shareholders…
Anthropic’s planned IPO now has a vocal panel of skeptics. On the October 17, 2026 episode of the All-In Podcast, CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer, the hosts said Anthropic plans to go public around Thanksgiving and that its Investor Day numbers drew mixed reactions. The discussion gives a useful checklist to retirement savers thinking about a hot AI listing and to holders of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction).
Investor Day Numbers Drew Mixed Reviews
The All-In Podcast hosts said the market-implied probability that Anthropic goes public this year had fallen to 74%, down from 95% in early September. That figure reflects trader expectations on timing.
Investor day figures read on the show included Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, net revenue retention of 900%, an adjusted gross margin of 85% and an adjusted operating margin of 11%. One host added, “No word on how the adjustments were calculated.” Another noted that participants reportedly signed NDAs: “I don’t know if you can completely trust what’s floating around X here. I think we’ll find out in due course.”
Chamath Palihapitiya called the growth remarkable: “I found the revenue breathtaking. $16.8 billion in a quarter for a three-year-old company is just ridiculous.” He also argued Anthropic should raise $200 billion to $250 billion at a lower valuation to secure compute.
What the All-In Podcast’s 30 Times Sales Demands From Buyers
A host on the All-In Podcast described “a very big IPO, 30 times price-to-sales ratio.” A price-to-sales ratio divides a company’s market value by its annual revenue. At the All-In Podcast’s 30x multiple, buyers pay $30 for every $1 of annual sales. The higher the multiple, the longer revenue must compound, and margins must expand to justify the price, and any slowdown tends to hit high-priced stocks hardest.
For perspective, Microsoft trades at 11.74 times trailing sales with an operating margin of about 46.8%.
How IPO Hype Usually Plays Out
Hot IPOs often price with a small float so that first-day demand can push shares well above the offer, and open-market buyers pay that premium. Insiders usually face a lockup, and its expiration can add supply months later. Index funds may also have to buy once a stock becomes eligible, which can make retirement accounts buyers by default.
Once an S-1 lands on the SEC’s EDGAR system, focus on audited revenue, how “adjusted” margins are defined, compute commitments, customer concentration, and use of proceeds. One host noted that an IPO next month would reveal the actual figures.
Why Microsoft Shareholders Have Skin in This Listing
Microsoft already books results tied to Anthropic. In fiscal Q4 2026, it recorded a $3.20 billion gain on its Anthropic investment, helping non-GAAP diluted EPS reach $4.74 against a $4.24 consensus, per its earnings release filed with the SEC. It also holds roughly a 27% stake in rival OpenAI, valued at about $135 billion. A public Anthropic price would re-mark that kind of exposure daily.
Sentiment travels, too. As one All-In host said, “Anytime there’s negative news on the big labs, everybody in the supply chain gets hit with that.” That supply chain, the power, cooling, and networking vendors behind the data centers, is where a lot of the quieter AI money is being made (we highlighted seven such companies in a free report on AI infrastructure suppliers). A CNBC Fast Money panelist warned on October 14 that “if Anthropic goes public, it goes much less than where it’s trading right now.” On Bloomberg Businessweek, Mandeep Singh said hyperscalers should “shine” while “the lab side seems to be incrementally slowing down because of open source pressure.”
Microsoft’s scale offers a buffer. Its AI business exceeded a $37 billion annualized run rate in fiscal Q3, Azure passed $100 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, and full-year capex reached $115.95 billion. Shares sit near $530, up 10.29% year to date and 2.66% over the past year.
What to Watch Before the Bell Rings on Anthropic
Microsoft’s next earnings report is nearing this week, and an Anthropic S-1 would follow if the Thanksgiving timeline holds. Watch whether audited filings confirm the investor day figures and whether Microsoft’s capex and AI demand commentary stabilizes the broader trade. For retirement investors, filed results deserve more weight than first-day headlines.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
