3 Big Pharma Earnings Reports to Watch: Eli Lilly, Merck and Gilead
Eli Lilly's EPS estimate collapsed by a third in just 30 days, Merck faces a comparison it cannot repeat, and Gilead is burning through cash fast. Three pharma giants report Thursday, and the results could reshape the sector's outlook for…
Three big pharma names report third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026. Merck (NYSE:MRK | MRK Price Prediction) opens with a 9 a.m. ET call. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) follows at 10 a.m. ET, and Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) reports after the close with a 4:30 p.m. ET webcast.
Consensus Estimates Heading Into Oct. 29
Acquisition charges distort the per-share comparisons for all three companies, so revenue provides the cleaner measure. Year-over-year figures compare with reported Q3 2025 and full-year 2025 results.
| Company | Q3 EPS Est. (YoY) | Q3 Revenue Est. (YoY) | FY2026 EPS Est. (YoY) | FY2026 Revenue Est. (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly | $6.6684 (−5.0%) | $22.62B (+28.5%) | $34.5858 (+42.9%) | $88.68B (+36.1%) |
| Merck | $2.0947 (−18.8%) | $17.35B (+0.4%) | $2.6603 (−70.4%) | $67.05B (+3.1%) |
| Gilead | $2.2064 (−10.7%) | $7.81B (+0.5%) | −$0.4283 (loss vs. $8.15) | $30.78B (+4.6%) |
Eli Lilly: Estimates Fell as GLP-1 Demand Climbed
Lilly trades at $1,281.91, up 18.7% year to date. Last quarter, revenue rose 47.7% to $22.97 billion, and EPS of $8.38 exceeded the $6.58 estimate. Mounjaro ($9.94 billion) and Zepbound ($4.93 billion) drove the gains.
The Q3 EPS consensus has fallen to $6.6684 from $9.9319 over the past 30 days. Lilly’s guidance excludes acquired IPR&D incurred after June 30, and the company completed three infectious disease acquisitions after the quarter ended. Expect new charges.
Also watch international Mounjaro uptake, the Foundayo ramp, and the retatrutide filing planned for Q1 2027. The CFO said future growth is “more driven by the penetration in the outside-the-U.S. market.” The main risk is pricing, as U.S. prices fell 9% last quarter, excluding adjustments.
Merck: Keytruda Faces a Tougher Comparison
Merck trades at $141.82, up 33.2% year to date but down 3.6% over the past week. Its partner is Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), and leaked cancer vaccine data with Moderna disappointed. Merck’s second-quarter revenue rose 5.07% to $16.61 billion. Adjusted EPS of −$0.13 beat the −$0.26 estimate despite a $2.31 per share Terns charge.
The CFO warned that U.S. Keytruda growth “will moderate,” and an approximately $250 million wholesaler timing benefit from Q3 2025 won’t repeat. Watch the Keytruda QLEX ramp ($463 million last quarter), Winrevair ($588 million, up 75%), and the revenue outlook of $66.3 billion to $67.3 billion.
The key risk is exclusivity, which Keytruda loses in 2028, and the CEO has called that period “more of a hill than a cliff.”
Gilead Sciences: HIV Strength Meets Two Launches
Gilead trades at $159.08, up 30.8% year to date. Second-quarter revenue rose 10.2% to $7.80 billion on HIV sales of $5.69 billion, up 12%. Management subsequently raised its 2026 product sales guidance to $30.1 billion–$30.4 billion.
Watch Yeztugo, which posted $232 million against a full-year target of about $1 billion. Also watch launch plans for BIC/LEN, as well as for anito-cel, which faces an FDA decision on Dec. 23, 2026. Income investors should keep an eye on the $0.82 quarterly dividend.
The key risk is a shrinking cash balance, which fell to $3.2 billion from $10.6 billion after the Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro deals.
Lilly Carries the Most at Stake Thursday
Lilly has the most to prove. Its shares have gained 56.3% over the past year, and the company is worth about $1.2 trillion. Even so, analysts made seven downward Q3 EPS revisions in the past 30 days and only three upward. Merck and Gilead mostly need steady execution. Lilly needs to show that international volume and new launches can outrun U.S. price erosion, and its 10 a.m. call will set the tone for the whole group.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
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