Beyond Keytruda: The Critical Pipeline Metrics to Watch in Merck’s Q3 Results on Oct. 29
Merck reports Q3 earnings on Oct. 29 with KEYTRUDA's 2028 patent clock ticking louder, and whether LIPFENDRA, QLEX, and WINREVAIR can shoulder the load will define whether management's "hill not a cliff" narrative holds up.
Merck (NYSE:MRK | MRK Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 29. KEYTRUDA still anchors the business, but I’ll be watching whether newer launches are growing fast enough to cushion the drug’s 2028 patent loss.
New Launches Are Carrying More of the Load
Last quarter, revenue rose 5.07% to $16.61 billion, beating the $16.37 billion consensus. The non-GAAP loss of $0.13 per share came in smaller than the expected $0.2576 loss despite a $2.31 per share charge tied to Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TERN). Management also raised 2026 sales guidance to $66.3 billion to $67.3 billion.
Product mix changed toward newer launches. KEYTRUDA slid 1% to $7.904 billion, while subcutaneous KEYTRUDA QLEX rose to $463 million from $128 million in Q1. WINREVAIR grew 75% to $588 million.
The FDA has since added HYPERION data to WINREVAIR’s label, and Merck and Daiichi Sankyo withdrew their accelerated approval application for I-DXd in small-cell lung cancer. Shares closed at $145.27, up 40.88% year to date but down 1.9% over the past month.
Consensus Has Drifted Lower
| Metric | Consensus | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 EPS | $2.0947 | $2.58 | -18.8% |
| Q3 Revenue | $17.35B | $17.276B | +0.4% |
| FY2026 EPS | $2.6603 | $8.98 | -70.4% |
| FY2026 Revenue | $67.05B | $65.01B | +3.1% |
Q3 EPS estimates have fallen from $2.2810 90 days ago. The year-ago quarter also included roughly $250 million of wholesaler timing benefit that management says will not repeat.
LIPFENDRA’s Debut and QLEX Conversion Top My List
LIPFENDRA, the first approved oral PCSK9 inhibitor, gets its first full quarter on the market. Management cautioned that access and adoption will take time, so I’ll be watching early prescription trends and payer coverage against 30 million U.S. patients on lipid-lowering therapy who remain above recommended LDL levels.
QLEX conversion is the second test. Adoption picked up after a permanent J-code arrived in April, and every patient moved to subcutaneous dosing helps defend the franchise.
For WINREVAIR, more than 1,800 new U.S. patients received prescriptions in Q2. You should look at whether the expanded label and international launches keep that pace.
On the pipeline, I want updates on sac-TMT and its 17 Phase 3 trials, calderasib’s KRAS G12C program, and the intismeran vaccine partnered with Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) following Phase 3 melanoma data. Doctors called those results a major advancement amid reports of a possible data leak. Offsets matter too: JANUVIA/JANUMET fell 31% last quarter, and OHTUVAYRE faces an unwind of Q2 specialty pharmacy buying.
A Shallow Hill Needs Visible Proof
CEO Robert Davis calls the KEYTRUDA exclusivity loss “more of a hill than a cliff,” backed by over 20 new products representing greater than $70 billion of commercial opportunity. Analysts still cut full-year EPS estimates 10 times in the past 30 days, with no upward increases. Measurable traction from LIPFENDRA, QLEX and WINREVAIR this quarter would make that hill look a lot easier to climb.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
