Investing

Merck’s Pipeline Could Be Its Next Big Growth Driver. Its Latest Earnings Offer a Clue.

Merck just posted its sixth straight earnings beat and its CEO is targeting $70 billion in mid-2030s revenue, yet the stock carries a looming patent cliff that could reshape everything. Whether the pipeline saves the story or the bears win…

By Vandita Jadeja
Published November 3, 2026, 1:03pm ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

A modern corporate building with a teal-colored glass facade and white window frames, featuring the turquoise Merck logo at the top left. The building stands against a bright blue sky with sparse white clouds, conveying a sense of corporate stability.
The distinctive corporate building of Merck, symbolizing the company's enduring presence and the significant returns for long-term investors. © Michael Vi / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Merck (NYSE:MRK | MRK Price Prediction) just posted its sixth consecutive earnings beat and raised its 2026 profit outlook. The 24/7 Wall St. price target stands at $124.70.

Against the latest price of $147.87, that means 15.67% downside. This stock earns a hold rating, and the model has high confidence in that call.

An infographic titled 'Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) 12-Month Price Prediction' with a '24/7 Wall St.' logo at the top. The call section shows a current price of $147.87, an arrow pointing to a price target of $124.70, indicating a -15.67% change. Below the target, a blue button reads 'HOLD' with 'High Confidence: 90%'. The 'How We Got There' section uses a horizontal bar chart showing percentages for Trailing P/E (20%), Forward P/E (50%), and Analyst Consensus (30%), stating 'Weighted Base: $113.16. Forward earnings pull valuation down.' The 'Our Adjustments' section features a bar chart detailing contributions from Base Price ($113.16), Sector Momentum (+), Analyst Sentiment (+), Earnings Growth (-19.3%), Volatility (+), and Price Position (+), culminating in a Final Target of $124.70. Descriptions below include 'Healthcare Sector Momentum, 70% Bullish Analyst Sentiment, -19.3% Earnings Growth, Low Beta (0.222).' A green section for 'BULL CASE: What Could Go Right' lists four points: Sac-TMT FDA Decision (June 2027), Intismeran + Keytruda (42% Reduced Recurrence Risk), Lipfendra (Multi-Billion Opportunity), and CEO Raising $70B Mid-2030s Revenue Target, with a Bull Case Price Target of $157.70. A red section for 'BEAR CASE: What Could Go Wrong' lists five points: Keytruda Patent Cliff (>$2 Billion Generic Pressure in 2027), Standalone Keytruda Sales Fell 5% in Q3, Three Phase 3 Oncology Trials Failed in 2026, Net Income Fell 12.45% in Q3, with a Bear Case Price Target of $108.80. The 'The Bottom Line' section reiterates 'HOLD -> $124.70 (-15.67%)' and states, 'Valuation prices in future pipeline success that has yet to materialize in earnings.' A '24/7 Wall St.' logo is at the very bottom.
24/7 Wall St.
Metric Value
Current Price $147.87
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $124.70
Upside/Downside -15.67%
Recommendation HOLD
Confidence Level 90%
MRK price target

The gap comes down to valuation. Merck has gained 75.82% over the past year, while 2026 earnings are taking in large acquisition charges.

Why We Could Be Wrong

Our target sits below today’s price, and the bull case is strong. Sac-TMT has a June 15, 2027 FDA decision date in endometrial cancer.

Chief Executive Rob Davis also said Merck now expects to raise its $70 billion mid-2030s revenue opportunity. Read our target as one datapoint among many. The bull case below lays out how Merck could beat it.

MRK price scenario

Six Straight Beats Lift Merck Within Reach of Its High

Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.49 exceeded the $2.09 consensus, and revenue of $18.09B came in above the $17.35B estimate. CNBC linked the higher outlook to the strength of the new subcutaneous Keytruda (CNBC), and Keytruda Qlex added $830M in sales. Winrevair rose 93% and Welireg climbed 56%. Merck now guides to non-GAAP EPS of $2.77-$2.82.

MRK earnings explorer

The stock is up 13.41% for the quarter and 43.41% YTD. It slipped 0.94% over the past month. Shares sit 5.21% below the $156 52-week high and 85.6% above the low.

Pipeline Wins Could Push Shares Toward $158

The bull case reaches $157.70, close to the Wall Street consensus target of $159.76. Analyst ratings include 5 Strong Buy, 14 Buy and 8 Hold, with no Sells.

In Phase 3, sac-TMT cut the risk of death by 32%. Intismeran plus Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42%. Lipfendra, Merck’s new oral cholesterol drug, drew more than 11,000 prescriptions in the quarter. Management called it a “multi-billion opportunity”.

MRK analyst ratings

Keytruda’s Patent Cliff Sets Up a $108.80 Downside Case

Bear-case estimates land at $108.80. Standalone Keytruda sales fell 5%, and management expects more than $2 billion of generic pressures in 2027. About $550 million of third-quarter sales came from purchase timing, and most of that should reverse.

Three Phase 3 oncology trials also failed earlier this year. Net income fell 12.45%, but a one-time $400M SciBrunch charge is part of the fall. Management also expects gross margin to rise as a Keytruda royalty rolls off.

How Merck Compares to Pfizer and Eli Lilly

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is the closest match: another mega-cap trying to overcome its patent cliffs with oncology launches. Its P/E is 22, and Merck’s forward P/E is 16. Pfizer’s 2026 EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 is similar to Merck’s, yet its market value of $170.7B is far smaller. That gap suggests investors are already paying for Merck’s pipeline.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) shows what a premium valuation requires. Lilly’s third-quarter revenue grew 38.61%, compared with 4.68% for Merck. Merck’s mid-single-digit growth supports a defensive multiple, which makes our target look reasonable.

Company Market Cap Latest Quarterly Revenue Growth
Merck $361.02B 4.68%
Pfizer $170.7B 2.6%
Eli Lilly $1.22T 38.61%

Pipeline Approvals Will Decide Merck’s Next Move

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $124.70 carries a hold rating with 90% confidence. The deciding factor is valuation: the stock already prices in pipeline success that has yet to show up in earnings.

I would grow more constructive if sac-TMT wins approval and Merck formally raises its 2030s revenue target. I would stay cautious if 2027 generic losses outpace new launches.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. Bull Case
2026 $124.70 $157.70
2027 $124.43 $155.02
2028 $118.39 $165.70
2029 $117.74 $177.88
2030 $118.89 $187.20

The 2026 row is our 12-month target, and later years reflect October points on the model’s path. They rest on Merck continuing to execute its current strategy. Pipeline approvals could push results toward the bull column, while a steeper Keytruda fall would add downside.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

All articles →