Obesity Pipeline vs. COVID Drag: The Hidden Numbers Deciding Pfizer’s Q3 Fate on Nov. 3
Pfizer's non-COVID drugs are growing fast, its obesity candidate is showing real results, and the stock is quietly up 25% this year. But two numbers buried in Tuesday's Q3 report will determine whether that momentum survives the company's shrinking pandemic…
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE | PFE Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results before the open on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Shares have gained 25% year to date. This report tests whether non-COVID growth and obesity progress can keep outpacing a shrinking pandemic franchise.
Strong Beats Mask a Shrinking COVID Base
Last quarter, adjusted EPS of $0.77 exceeded the $0.6822 consensus, and revenue of $15.03B beat the $14.39B estimate. Launched and acquired products grew 18% operationally, while Paxlovid fell 95% and Comirnaty dropped 34%.
Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $60.5B to $62.5B and reaffirmed adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $3.00, despite cutting its COVID outlook to roughly $4B from $5B. A $3.8B sigvotatug vedotin impairment pushed the quarter to a GAAP net loss of $248M. The stock has since rose from $25.07 at filing to $29.59.
Consensus Points to a Lower Bar
| Metric | Consensus | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Normalized EPS | $0.728 | $0.87 | -16.3% |
| Q3 Revenue | $15.88B | $16.65B | -4.7% |
| FY2026 Normalized EPS | $2.9561 | $3.23 | -8.5% |
| FY2026 Revenue | $62.22B | $62.58B | -0.6% |
The Q3 EPS estimate has declined since $0.8155 90 days ago, partly reflecting a roughly $0.10 Innovent charge recorded this quarter.
Comirnaty Timing and Berobenatide Data Set the Tone
Management expects most Comirnaty sales toward year-end, so Q3 vaccine uptake under a narrower CDC recommendation offers an early read. CEO Albert Bourla argued “the vaccines will see more stability irrespective of the fluctuations of the infection rates, while Paxlovid will show high correlation” with the season.
The focus will be on whether the growth drivers hold their pace. Eliquis rose 21% to $2.43B last quarter, and Padcev grew 23% after its muscle-invasive bladder cancer expansion.
On obesity, monthly berobenatide delivered placebo-corrected weight loss of up to 12.3% in VESPER-3. Pfizer plans 10 Phase III studies in 2026 and expects amylin combination data this year, aiming a first approval in 2028. Keep an eye on timing updates for that combo and the MEVPRO-1 prostate cancer results due in the fourth quarter.
Margins matter too. Pfizer now aiming $9.7 billion in total net savings through 2029, and this is the first full quarter under interim CFO Cecile Guegan.
A Bridge Quarter Before the 2028 Patent Cliff
Pfizer faces loss-of-exclusivity pressure through 2028 and expects to return to growth from 2029 onward. Every quarter until then has to show the newer portfolio absorbing COVID and generic losses while funding a dividend yielding about 5.75%. Pfizer has beaten EPS expectations in all 10 of the past 10 quarters. If obesity timelines stay on track and the full-year guidance holds, the bridge to 2029 looks more credible.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
