Apple heads into a pivotal earnings report tonight as new CEO John Ternus prepares to lead his first earnings call.
Investors have plenty of questions heading into tonight.
Apple’s installed base exceeds 2.5 billion devices, offering an enormous opportunity to monetize artificial intelligence through Siri and other services.
But rising memory costs, chip shortages, and questions about Apple’s AI strategy in China threaten to complicate the company’s growth outlook.
With Apple valued at approximately $4.93 trillion, investors are looking for a credible AI roadmap and a reassuring margin outlook. Anything less could raise fresh questions about its next phase of growth.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter results tonight at 4:30 PM ET. Tonight marks CEO John Ternus’s first earnings report with Apple. Shares slipped 2.06% intraday to $337.53 heading into the release.
Apple posted June-quarter revenue of $109.42B, up 16.36% from a year earlier. EPS came in at $2.02, ahead of the $1.89 estimate, for its 9th consecutive beat. iPhone revenue reached $54.25B, compared with $44.58B a year earlier.
Tariff refunds added about two percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS. Shares fell 7.35% on the earnings-day session.
The stock has since recovered and is up 24.5% year to date, though it has dropped 2.93% over the past week.
| Metric | Q4 FY26 Estimate | YoY Change | FY26 Estimate | FY27 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $113.36B | +10.62% | $477.62B | $527.26B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $1.9782 | +6.93% | $8.8199 | $9.5635 |
Analysts project EPS growth well below revenue growth, which shows how heavily they are weighting memory costs and a lower tariff benefit. The FY27 EPS estimate has drifted down from $9.7132 90 days ago, so out-year margin assumptions have been reduced.
Here are some of the top factors to watch in Apple’s earnings tonight:
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Earnings-Day Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | +6.8% | -7.35% | -1.78% | +1.43% | +5.25% |
| Q2 FY26 | +3.59% | +3.24% | -1.18% | +4.7% | +10.75% |
| Q1 FY26 | +6.34% | +0.46% | +4.06% | +7.18% | +1.17% |
| Q4 FY25 | +4.53% | -0.38% | -0.49% | -0.7% | +5.1% |
On average, shares have swung 3.15% in the week after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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