Live Live update #9

Apple’s Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Q4 Earnings

From live coverage: Live: Will Apple Crush Q4 Earnings Tonight in New CEO John Ternus's First Quarter?
AAPL
Apple

Thesis check


intact$339.31 -1.5% today
“Apple can keep expanding margins and monetize its 2.5 billion device base through AI services”

Bull case
  • Gross margin climbed six straight quarters to 50.1% in Q2 2026
  • Eight consecutive earnings beats going into tonight's report
  • 65% of the global premium smartphone market, per Counterpoint and MacRumors
  • Q3 2026 EPS of $2.02 topped the $1.89 estimate
Bear case
  • Rising memory and component costs pressure the margin streak
  • Global smartphone market just posted its worst third quarter since 2013
  • Put/call ratio of 1.83 into the report shows traders paying up for downside protection
  • Q3 2026 revenue of $109.42B only edged the $108.96B estimate

The margin streak is the load-bearing piece and it remains intact, so the thesis holds into John Ternus's first call. Consensus sits at $1.98 EPS on $113.36B in revenue, and as we flagged at 3:10pm, a gross margin below 50% would be the crack that flips this to weakening.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Apple Q4 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Apple’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Apple's New CEO Has a Message for Investors After Record Quarter

Thomas Richmond
John Ternus

Earnings · 2026 Q4
John Ternus
CEO, Apple

4:30pm ET

Today, Apple is proud to report a September quarter revenue record of $114.5 billion, up 12 percent from a year ago, with iPhone reaching a September quarter record and Services reaching an all-time high, capping off our best fiscal year ever.

Ternus closes his first fiscal year as CEO with double-digit growth across both iPhone and Services, the combination investors had doubted Apple could still deliver at a $4.9 trillion market cap. The September quarter sets the bar for the holiday guide.

Apple's Q4 Earnings at a Glance

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Q4 2026

4:30pm ET

EPS
$2.10
est $1.98
+6.2%

Revenue
$114.48B
est $113.36B
+1.0%

John Ternus opened his tenure as CEO with a September quarter record, iPhone revenue of $57.58 billion and Services at an all-time high topping expectations on both lines. Tariff refunds drove part of that, so the underlying beat is thinner than it looks, and the holiday setup rides on iPhone Duo and the revamped Siri.

Apple Drops Just 1% After Q4 Earnings as Revenue and Profits Crush Expectations

Thomas Richmond

Apple just reported Q4 FY2026 earnings, with shares initially down just 1% in after-hours trading, a relatively small reaction compared to concerns heading into the report.

Apple beat Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, with iPhone sales showing particularly impressive growth. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $114.48B vs. $113.38B expected (+12% YoY)
  • EPS: $2.10 vs. $1.99 expected (+14% YoY)
  • Gross Margin: 47.9% vs. 47.5% expected
  • Net Income: $30.71B (+12% YoY)

Revenue by Business:

  • iPhone: $57.58B vs. $56.54B expected (+17% YoY)
  • Services: $31.57B vs. $31.58B expected (+10% YoY)
  • Mac: $10.79B vs. $9.61B expected (+24% YoY)
  • iPad: $6.23B vs. $6.70B expected (-10% YoY)
  • Wearables: $8.30B vs. $9.06B expected (-8% YoY)

Quick Read:

  • Apple Beats Expectations: Revenue and EPS both exceeded consensus, with iPhone and Mac sales driving growth.
  • Margins Hold Up: Gross margin of 47.9% beat expectations despite rising cost concerns, although tariff refunds provided an approximately 1-percentage-point boost.
  • China Remains Mixed: Greater China revenue jumped 21% to $17.54 billion but missed Wall Street’s $18.58 billion estimate.

Apple also returned $28 billion to shareholders during the quarter and reported record September-quarter revenue, iPhone sales, and EPS.

Bottom Line: Despite concerns about Apple’s valuation and rising costs, shares are down only about 1% following a strong earnings report. The relatively modest decline suggests the initial market reaction has been less negative than some investors feared.

Apple Stock Is Near Record Highs - Can Q4 Earnings Justify Its Valuation?

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Valuation · as of Nov 2

4:15pm ET

$339.31-1.5%Target $332.39 · -2.0%
52-wk low $242.7652-wk high $351.73

Trailing P/E
39.5×
Forward P/E
35.5×
PEG
4.2×
Price/Sales
10.8×
EV/EBITDA
30.1×
Price/Book
46.8×
Market cap $5.03T · Revenue +16.4% YoY
6 Strong buy19 Buy13 Hold3 Sell3 Strong sell

Apple heads into tonight's Q4 report at 39x trailing earnings, priced within 4% of its $351.73 52-week high, with revenue up 16.4% year over year carrying the weight. The $332.39 consensus target sits below the $339.31 price, and 19 holds, sells, and strong sells against 25 buy ratings say the room is split.

Apple Has Crushed Earnings 8 Times in a Row - Can It Do It Again Tonight?

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Earnings preview · Q4 2026

3:43pm ET

Reports
Mon, Nov 2After close
Consensus EPS
$1.98
Consensus revenue
$113.36B

Eight straight beats is the streak John Ternus inherits, and tonight he has to extend it while the global smartphone market just posted its worst third quarter since 2013 on memory shortages. Apple's own China momentum has been the offset, so the December-quarter guide and any commentary on component costs will decide whether the $4.9 trillion valuation holds.

What to watch
  • December-quarter revenue guidance against a memory-constrained supply chain
  • Greater China revenue growth and whether iPhone 17 demand held
  • Gross margin direction after six straight quarters of expansion
  • Services growth and the Siri AI monetization timeline across the 2.5 billion device base
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 8 of last 8
  • Q4 2024

    +2.5%

  • Q1 2025

    +2.5%

  • Q2 2025

    +2.4%

  • Q3 2025

    +10.1%

  • Q4 2025

    +4.5%

  • Q1 2026

    +6.3%

  • Q2 2026

    +3.6%

  • Q3 2026

    +6.8%

Earnings-day stock move · last 3 reports
  • Q4 2025

    -0.4%

  • Q1 2026

    +0.5%

  • Q2 2026

    +3.2%

This One Number Could Make or Break Apple's Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:10pm ET

Gross
50.1%+3.6pp YoY
Operating
32.6%+2.6pp YoY
Net
27.2%+2.3pp YoY

Gross margin has climbed six straight quarters to 50.1% in Q2 2026, the first time it has cracked 50 in this stretch. That is the number to test tonight, because rising memory and component costs are the one thing that could stall the streak just as Apple's new CEO takes his first earnings call.

Operating margin by quarter

35.8%32.7%29.6%

Top Hedge Funds Betting Big on Apple Today

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Tracked 13F positioning

3:05pm ET

$74Bacross 16 tracked filers
2 added · 8 trimmed · 1 exited

  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc

    $66B0.0%

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $2.6B—

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $1.6B-0.2%

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $1.2B-0.3%

  • Gotham Asset Management LLC

    $828M-0.0%

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC

    $459M-0.5%

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $390M-0.4%

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $219M-0.8%

+ 9 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Among 16 filers, eight trimmed Apple and only two added in the quarter ended June 30, with one exiting entirely. Berkshire Hathaway held its stake flat and still accounts for the bulk of the roughly $73.8 billion disclosed, while quant shops including Millennium and Renaissance cut hardest. These 13F snapshots are about 45 days stale, leaving current positioning into tonight's report unknown.

Apple's Technical Setup Heading into Tonight's Q4 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Technical setup

2:45pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Mon, Nov 2
  • R2$351.73+4.3%
  • R1$345.26+2.4%
  • Now$337.07
  • S1$325.81-3.3%
  • S2$300.28-10.9%
50-day avg
$333.59+1.0% above
200-day avg
$296.95+13.5% above
52-week range
$243.42 – $351.73

Apple goes into tonight's report at $337.07, sitting just $3.48 above its 50-day average at $333.59 and roughly 4% under the $351.73 52-week high that doubles as first resistance. A beat puts that high in play immediately, while a stumble sends the stock toward support at $325.81, with $300.28 and the 200-day at $296.95 below it.

Polymarket: 82% Chance Apple Beats Q4 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Prediction markets

2:40pm ET

Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?
82%Yes-0.5pp this week
Polymarket · $1k traded · resolves Mon, Nov 2

Polymarket traders are pricing an Apple earnings beat as the most likely outcome into tonight's report, with the odds barely budging over the past week despite memory cost and AI questions hanging over John Ternus's first call. Thin volume means this reflects sentiment, and the crowd clearly expects the services-led beat streak to hold.

Yes probability

85.4%82.3%79.1%

Apple Traders Heavily Bearish Tonight With a 1.83 Put/Call Ratio

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Options positioning

2:35pm ET

Put/call 1.83Puts dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
46.4%
Expiry
Wed, Nov 4chain as of Fri, Oct 30

A 1.83 put/call ratio into tonight's report, with 6,659 puts stacked at the $350 strike against 1,511 calls, says traders paid up for downside protection ahead of John Ternus's first call. Positioning is defensive, and hedging is heavily skewed to the put side. The 46.4% at-the-money implied volatility at $345 shows how much movement the market is pricing either way.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $337.5

    1.1k / 119

  • $340

    2.5k / 204

  • $342.5

    452 / 130

  • $345

    688 / 956

  • $347.5

    508 / 440

  • $350

    6.7k / 1.5k

Apple's Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
AAPL
Apple

Last quarter — Q3 2026

2:30pm ET

EPS
$2.02vs $1.89 est +6.8%
Revenue
$109.42Bvs $108.96B est +0.4%

June-quarter results leaned on services and a wide earnings beat while revenue only edged past estimates, so the margin story carried the quarter more than unit demand did. That sets a narrow path tonight: with memory costs climbing and the iPhone cycle under scrutiny, John Ternus needs the same services strength to offset hardware pressure in his first earnings call as CEO.

next print Mon, Nov 2

Apple's New CEO Faces His First Earnings Test Tonight - Here's What to Watch

Thomas Richmond

Apple heads into a pivotal earnings report tonight as new CEO John Ternus prepares to lead his first earnings call.

Investors have plenty of questions heading into tonight.

Apple’s installed base exceeds 2.5 billion devices, offering an enormous opportunity to monetize artificial intelligence through Siri and other services.

But rising memory costs, chip shortages, and questions about Apple’s AI strategy in China threaten to complicate the company’s growth outlook.

With Apple valued at approximately $4.93 trillion, investors are looking for a credible AI roadmap and a reassuring margin outlook. Anything less could raise fresh questions about its next phase of growth.

View the full live blog (14 updates) →