ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy Earnings Previews: What Shareholders Should Watch
ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy both beat estimates last quarter, but swinging oil prices and activist pressure now threaten the generous payouts each company promised shareholders. Here is what the Nov. 5 reports need to show for those commitments to hold.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP | COP Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results before the open on Nov. 5, and Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) reports after the close. For income investors, both reports will show whether bigger payouts can hold up while oil prices swing.
Strong Quarters Meet a Wobbling Oil Price
Both producers beat estimates last quarter. ConocoPhillips posted adjusted EPS of $3.24 against a $2.89 consensus. Its realized crude price rose to $99.40 per barrel from $64.23 a year earlier. Devon earned core EPS of $1.57 versus $1.41 expected in its first combined quarter.
Oil prices have become volatile since then. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $110.01 a barrel on Oct. 19, fell to $103.37 by Oct. 27, and rose to $107.56 on Oct. 30, the latest available reading. On Mad Money on Nov. 2, Jim Cramer said oil “plummeted overnight on hopes for a peaceful ending of the war.” Over the past week, ConocoPhillips retreated 2.8%, and Devon dropped 7.6%.
Consensus Points to Sharply Higher Earnings
| Metric | ConocoPhillips | Devon Energy |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 EPS consensus | $3.0426 | $1.3143 |
| Q3 2025 EPS | $1.61 | $1.04 |
| EPS growth YoY | 89.0% | 26.4% |
| Q3 2026 revenue consensus | $18.92B | $6.85B |
| Revenue growth YoY | 21.9% | 143.9% |
| FY2026 EPS consensus | $11.4013 (+85.1%) | $5.4784 (+39.8%) |
| FY2026 revenue consensus | $73.55B (+19.5%) | $25.49B (+48.3%) |
Devon’s growth figures include combined operations.
Buybacks, Synergies, and Production Set the Tone
ConocoPhillips: Can Doubled Buybacks Last?
Board Chair Ryan Lance said the company “doubled our quarterly share repurchases, achieved our $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule” and raised LNG offtake to 12 MTPA. Management targets returning 45% of operating cash flow in 2026, up from about 40% in the first half. Also, this will be the first report since Andrew O’Brien became CEO.
Production guidance is 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, and reaching it depends on an increase in Qatar and record Permian output. LNG offtake refers to contractual agreements to purchase liquefied natural gas for resale overseas at higher prices. Free cash flow (the cash left after capital spending) pays for the dividend and buybacks. Lance said the company remains “on track to achieve our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.”
Devon: Synergies Must Reach the Bottom Line
CEO Clay Gaspar said Devon produced 503,000 barrels of oil per day at the top of guidance, kept capital spending 2% below expectations, and generated $1.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow. He also cited more than 350 ongoing synergy initiatives and expressed growing confidence in delivering at least $1 billion in synergies.
Guidance for this quarter calls for 550,000 to 560,000 barrels of oil per day. Devon has $7.8 billion left on its buyback authorization and has promised an update on its portfolio review. On Sept. 23, a Halftime Report panelist responded to an activist pressing a sale. The panelist called Devon “an incredibly effective, efficient producer” and said the activist push is “only going to be good for the name.”
Lower Oil Raises the Stakes for Both Payouts
ConocoPhillips needs to maintain its doubled buyback pace and show a credible recovery in Qatar. Both support its $0.84 quarterly dividend and the 45% payout goal. Devon needs synergies to show up in reported results and concrete portfolio decisions. Its leverage ratio of 1.2x net debt-to-EBITDAX provides less of a buffer if oil prices continue to fall. ConocoPhillips has the cleaner setup. Devon has the bigger catalyst, and the case for its $0.32 dividend depends on the Coterra merger delivering cost savings and cash flow.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
