AI Cloud Crash Puts CoreWeave and Nebius on Sale. Their Next Reports Decide What Happens Next
Both neoclouds lost roughly half their value in a month, and two earnings dates now decide whether the selloff was an overreaction or an accurate warning. One company has far less room for error than the other.
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Two of the most closely followed AI cloud providers now trade at roughly half what they fetched a month earlier. From October 6 to November 6, 2026, CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell 49.9% to $45.89, and Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) fell 47.7% to $130.78. Both are so-called neoclouds. They buy huge numbers of high-end graphics processors (GPUs), install them in powered data centers, and rent that computing power to AI labs, software companies, trading firms, and enterprises.
Customers pay for short-term capacity or sign multi-year contracts, and the providers borrow money or sell stock to fund the chips and buildings well before the rent comes in. The post-midterm AI selloff that began November 5 hit both stocks on concerns that new state governments will slow the data center buildouts their growth depends on. Each company now faces a dated test: CoreWeave reports on November 10, 2026, and Nebius reports on November 12, 2026. Both are speculative, higher-risk stocks.
CoreWeave: Margin Expansion Has to Outrun a Rising Interest Bill
What Went Wrong
CoreWeave is down 35.9% year to date and 24.5% from October 29 to November 6. At $45.89, it trades about 66.8% below its 52-week high of $138.25 and well under its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $78.05 and $90.89. The stock did rebound 5.1% in the November 6 session, but it remains deep in comeback territory.
The political trigger lands hardest on a company that builds at CoreWeave’s pace. On Bloomberg Businessweek on November 5, Bloomberg senior editor Eric Weiner said hyperscale growth plans “were based around doing this in Texas, doing this in Ohio. And now there are new governors in those places that are there to block it.” He added, “We were expecting astronomical growth. And now we’re looking at incremental.”
CoreWeave’s specific problem is leverage. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 8.94 and net debt to EBITDA is 10.75. Second quarter interest expense reached $640 million, up from $267 million a year earlier, and the net loss widened to $626 million from $290 million. Free cash flow was −$5.743 billion for the quarter. The company also faces a securities fraud class action alleging it hid data center construction delays. When fresh doubts about how fast new data centers can be built collide with a balance sheet like that, the stock falls hard, which is what happened on November 5. CNBC reported that CoreWeave shares were among the session’s steepest decliners.
Named Catalyst: Third Quarter Report on November 10
CoreWeave reports after the close on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, with its conference call at 5:00 PM ET. This report matters because management told investors in August that the return from its spending had started. On the second-quarter call, Chief Executive Officer Michael Intrator said, “the operating leverage we have been building” was “beginning to show up clearly in our results.” Adjusted operating income rose to $128 million from $21 million in the prior quarter, and second-quarter GAAP EPS of −$1.14 beat the −$1.447 estimate. That was CoreWeave’s first EPS beat after five straight misses, even though revenue topped estimates in every quarter where one was available (Q2 2025 through Q2 2026).
Intrator also addressed the political risk directly in August, saying moratoriums would affect location rather than demand. Barron’s picked up the same theme on November 5 under the headline “Why Its CEO Isn’t Afraid of Politics.” The November 10 report is the first chance to check that claim against actual numbers.
What Has to Go Right
- Revenue inside the guide: third-quarter revenue of $3.45 billion to $3.6 billion, keeping full-year 2026 revenue of $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion intact.
- Margin expansion on schedule: adjusted operating income of $200 million to $260 million, with management still expecting adjusted operating margins to reach the low teens in the fourth quarter.
- Interest expense inside its range: the guide calls for $860 million to $940 million. Anything above that range eats directly into the operating leverage story.
- Backlog converting to revenue: the backlog stood at $104.2 billion on June 30, and management said more than $25 billion of net new commitments came in during the early weeks of the third quarter. Investors need to see that backlog hold up or grow.
- Power coming online: active power was 1.5 gigawatts at quarter-end against a year-end target of more than 1.85 gigawatts, with full-year capital spending guided to $35 billion to $39 billion.
Wall Street remains positive on the name. The consensus price target is $132.18. There is not enough valuation history to say whether the stock is cheap relative to its own past, so the case rests on execution.
What Would Falsify the Case
The comeback thesis breaks if any of the following show up:
- An EPS miss driven by interest expense above the guided range
- Any new disclosure of construction delays, which would also add weight to the pending class action
- A reduction in the 1.85-gigawatt year-end power target
- A higher capital spending guide without a matching increase in revenue
- Management admitting that state-level opposition is pushing out delivery dates
Any one of these would show the post-midterm selloff was pricing in a genuine problem.
Nebius Group: Revenue Has to Catch Up to Guidance That Still Stands
What Went Wrong
Nebius is still up 56.2% year to date, from $83.71 at the end of 2025. The recent damage is nonetheless severe. The stock fell 23.9% from October 29 to November 6 and trades about 56.4% below its 52-week high of $299.86. It is also below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $206.96 and $177.89, even after an 8.7% rebound on November 6. Shares traded at $208.50 when Nebius filed its second-quarter results in August.
The market-wide question was put simply on CNBC’s Fast Money on November 5, in an episode hosted by Melissa Lee, where the panel asked: “Is AI demand just gone or is this getting pushed down the line?” A panelist answered that a delay “means a longer timetable, it means higher costs” and possibly “more friction on the permitting level.”
Nebius’s specific weak points are dilution, concentration, and uneven revenue. In the second quarter, it sold 12.7 million shares through its at-the-market program at a weighted average of $224, raising about $2.8 billion, and it had 12.3 million shares left under that program. Its convertible debt has a book value of $8.5 billion against a fair value of $20.8 billion, a gap that points to more future share dilution. Three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of second-quarter revenue. Revenue also missed consensus in Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 before beating in the first two quarters of 2026. Local politics already touches Nebius directly: a public hearing on its Vineland, New Jersey, project adjourned without a vote, although management said the switch to on-site fuel cells would have “no significant impact expected on the project timeline.”
Named Catalyst: Third-Quarter Report on November 12
Nebius reports before the market opens on Thursday, November 12, 2026, with a conference call at 8:00 AM ET. The report matters because Nebius reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion after first-half revenue of $399 million and $582.3 million. That means the second half has to produce about $2.02 billion just to reach the low end, and roughly $2.42 billion to reach the top. Consensus for the third quarter is about $904.8 million in revenue and EPS of −$1.238.
Management said capacity deployed late in the second quarter would begin contributing to revenue in Q3, and warned that “There is a gap between the connected power and the revenues coming.” CEO Arkady Volozh described the demand picture without hedging: “The demand for what we are building continues to be enormous, and we have the right business model to capture it.”
What Has to Go Right
- Revenue in line or ahead: a result at or above the roughly $904.8 million consensus, with the $3 billion to $3.4 billion full-year guide reaffirmed.
- A visible path on annualized revenue: the annualized run rate was $3 billion at the end of June against a year-end target of $7 billion to $9 billion. The September exit rate needs to show real progress toward that target.
- Margins holding: group adjusted EBITDA margin was 41% in the second quarter, against a full-year target of about 40%.
- Capacity and funding on track: 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected power in 2026, the 5 gigawatt contracted power target, and the expected more than $9 billion of customer prepayments in 2026 helping fund a capital spending guide of $20 billion to $25 billion.
- A wider customer base: the four second-quarter deals with Reflection, Cohere, a U.S. neolab, and a quant-trading firm averaged more than $1 billion each. The concentration figures need to start coming down.
The consensus price target is $281, with more Buy ratings than Hold or Sell ratings. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 26.52 on trailing revenue. That number reflects expected growth, and no multi-year valuation history is available to show the stock is cheap against its own past.
What Would Falsify the Case
A revenue miss on November 12 would be the third in five quarters and would undercut the full-year guide. A cut to the 2026 revenue guide or the $7 billion to $9 billion annualized revenue target, a smaller connected-power goal, a new delay at Vineland, larger stock sales through the at-the-market program without faster revenue growth, or a bigger share of revenue from its top three customers would each mean the selloff was right to mark the stock down.
Verdict: Nebius Has the Clearer Path, CoreWeave Has the Tighter Margin for Error
Nebius enters its report in better shape. It had $8 billion in cash at June 30, and its test comes down to turning capacity it has already built into revenue. CoreWeave’s comeback depends on reaching a narrow window: adjusted operating income of $200 million to $260 million while interest costs rise toward $940 million, and a miss on either line would confirm the concerns about its debt load. On the evidence available ahead of the November 10 and November 12 reports, Nebius has the stronger comeback case, while CoreWeave’s case holds up only if its third quarter shows the margin expansion arriving on schedule.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
