Coinbase Is Still Down 23% in the Past Month: Did Today Mark the Bottom for COIN Stock?
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A month of selling has pushed Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) into a debate over whether the crypto exchange has found its floor. Coinbase stock is down 23% over the past month to $137.46 in late trading. That price includes a 4% gain from the prior close, as Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rises to $74,398 and tech stocks rally.
Losses run deep on longer periods as well, with Coinbase stock lower year to date and over the past year. The company set a new 52-week low on November 6. The drop followed a weak quarterly report, a record hack at rival Binance and a slide in Bitcoin. Whether that low marked the bottom is now the central question for Coinbase shareholders.
How a Weak Quarter and a Binance Hack Dragged Coinbase Lower
Coinbase reported Q3 2026 results on October 29, with revenue of $1.22 billion, flat from the second quarter. That figure was down 35% year over year (YoY), and Coinbase’s transaction revenue fell 44% YoY to $590 million. Spot trading slowed as crypto volatility sat at multi-year lows.
Most of Coinbase’s $719 million in net income came from $715 million in gains on crypto the company holds for investment. Stripping out those gains, the company’s adjusted net income was only $77.7 million, a far smaller result than the headline profit suggests.
Reports of a record theft at Binance followed the next day, shaking confidence across crypto trading venues, and Bitcoin’s slide added pressure on Coinbase, since lower crypto prices tend to mean less trading on the exchange.
Robinhood and Circle Internet Took Similar Hits
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) stock is down 22% over the past month to $85.22. Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) stock is down 20% over the past month to $67.68. Both peers joined the bounce from the prior close. Those declines nearly match Coinbase, which points to sector-wide pressure on crypto-linked fintech names.
A diversified retail brokerage, Robinhood offers equities, options, crypto, prediction markets and banking, so a crypto slump hits only part of the business. USD Coin (CRYPTO:USDC) issuer Circle Internet makes most of its money from interest on reserves, with newer revenue from its Arc blockchain. Coinbase sits between them, combining a trading business tied to crypto activity with subscription and stablecoin income that leans on USDC.
Bull and Bear Cases for a Coinbase Bottom
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) named Coinbase among the companies “best-positioned” to win customers leaving Binance. Coinbase’s crypto trading share rose to 10.7%, a fourth straight quarterly gain. On the stablecoin side, Coinbase makes $307 million last quarter on record USDC balances, a stream that depends less on trading. Bitcoin moves fast in both directions, so a crypto rebound could revive Coinbase’s trading volumes.
Annualized revenue from Coinbase’s prediction markets topped $200 million. Chief financial officer Alesia Haas said on the earnings call that “this is all incremental” to spot trading. Customers added dollars to prediction markets and derivatives.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Michael Cyprys cut Coinbase to Underweight and lowered his price target to $120 from $258. In his note, Cyprys wrote, “Confidence in the earnings recovery has deteriorated,” and his math points to Q4 2026 transaction revenue below consensus. Analysts have also sharply cut their 2027 earnings estimates for Coinbase, leaving the stock at a steep forward earnings multiple, and a falling Bitcoin hurts the company twice, through less trading and lower values on Coinbase’s own crypto holdings.
Rates add another layer of risk for Coinbase. Chicago Federal Reserve’s Austan Goolsbee labeled the latest inflation report “borderline disturbing” as the Fed weighs more rate hikes, a environment that tends to pressure crypto and high-valuation stocks.
What Each Side Needs From Coinbase Next
A key question for Coinbase is whether its fourth-quarter report shows trading recovering. That report is expected on February 3, 2027, a date the company hasn’t confirmed.
Proof that weak trading and falling crypto prices keep dragging earnings estimates lower would strengthen the bears’ case on Coinbase. The bulls want to see spot volumes rebound, market share keep rises and stablecoin income hold steady as Coinbase courts customers leaving Binance. Weighing those two paths is a decision each reader will have to make. A cautious investment approach could make sense until the question of Coinbase’s trading recovery resolves.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk. His work has appeared in 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, MarketScreener, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, and others. With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
