Nvidia Is Back Below $4 Trillion, and Microsoft Just Passed It
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NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) finished Wednesday’s regular session at $173.73. It was up $4.84, or 2.87%, and was worth $4.20 trillion. At after-hours prices, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) was worth more.
A story broke around 5:30 p.m. ET that NVIDIA’s board is reportedly preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang after two affairs. Later that evening, a second report said the board is reportedly working with an outside firm to identify replacements. NVIDIA has confirmed neither report, and the stock fell after the first one.
Microsoft moved ahead because it fell less. It closed down $12.03, or 2.26%, at $521.13, and it has lost 6.24% over the past week.
A $33 Billion Gap That a $1.40 Move Can Erase
At 7:59 p.m. ET, NVIDIA traded at $158.76. That was down $14.97, or 8.62%, and below its 52-week low of $164.27. Around 5:25 p.m., it fell to $156.20, about 10.1% below the close.
NVIDIA has 24.15 billion shares, so the after-hours price values the company at about $3.834 trillion. That is roughly $362 billion less than at the close. Microsoft slid 0.12% to $520.50, which comes to about $3.867 trillion on 7.43 billion shares.
Microsoft’s lead of about $33 billion drops NVIDIA to third among U.S. companies. First place goes to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) after a record close of $355.63, up 2.04%, which put its value at $5.17 trillion. It then traded at $356.13 after hours. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) rose 2.11% to $293.45, a value of $3.61 trillion.
At the close, NVIDIA led Microsoft by about $324 billion. After hours, the gap is only about $1.40 per NVIDIA share, so the order could flip either way after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Thursday. NVIDIA falls below $4 trillion at any price under $165.63 and below $160.14 against Microsoft. If NVIDIA closes Thursday near the after-hours price, it would be its lowest close since July 7, 2025, when the stock ended at $158.24.
Leadership Risk Lands on Top of the AI Spending Debate
The business itself was strong in NVIDIA’s last earnings report. Fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 105.8% to $96.22 billion, and management guided to $108 billion for the third quarter.
Baird cut the stock to Neutral on Wednesday morning. That evening, Bernstein downgraded it to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its price target to $200 from $400.
Microsoft Buys the Chips NVIDIA Sells
Microsoft spent $39.37 billion on capital expenditures last quarter. It also docked its first Vera Rubin GPUs while scaling up its own Maia chips. If AI spending slowed down, Microsoft’s margins would benefit, and NVIDIA’s growth would suffer.
So far this year, Microsoft is up 8.44%, and NVIDIA is down 6.63%. Both are among the largest index weights, so index fund investors own both companies.
What Could Decide NVIDIA’s Spot Next
Getting the spot back starts with a Thursday close above $160.14. The next test is the earnings report expected Tuesday, November 17, after the close.
Supporters of the stock point out that customer demand exceeds the supply NVIDIA can deliver, Vera Rubin production is ramping up, and a trailing P/E of about 35x is reasonable for a company that just more than doubled its revenue.
Governance is the real risk, because a forced exit of the CEO could worry partners. Microsoft offers a point of comparison for investors considering that risk. It trades at a P/E of about 29x and has $677 billion in commercial remaining performance obligations, which is signed revenue it has not yet recognized.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
