XRP vs. Dogecoin: Which Discount Closes First?

Holders of both XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) and Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) have lost money over the past year, though the pain has been sharper for Dogecoin investors. According to Santiment’s one-year Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) data, the average loss for XRP holders is around 11.8%, while for Dogecoin holders, it’s much greater at 19.3%. In simple terms, investors in both cryptocurrencies are currently “underwater,” but Dogecoin holders are worse off.

Recently, Dogecoin surged, climbing 12% in one week to reach $0.10. This rise was fueled by large wallet holders, or “whales,” making significant purchases. XRP, meanwhile, gained 10.4% over the same period, bringing its price to $1.55.

This situation raises an interesting question for investors: which of these two cryptocurrencies will recover its losses first? The answer largely depends on buyer behavior and whether those buyers actually possess the coins.

MVRV Says the Average Past-Year Buyer Is Down 12% in XRP and 19% in Dogecoin

MVRV measures a cryptocurrency’s market value against its realized value, the price at which the coins were last transferred on the blockchain. When the MVRV reading is negative, it indicates that the average price at which transactions occurred in the last year was higher than the current market price.

Many traders view a significant negative MVRV as a potential buying signal. The reasoning is that investors sitting on losses have likely finished selling, which reduces available supply in the market. However, for this theory to hold true, fresh investments must come in to absorb the remaining selling pressure. If new buyers don’t show up, the discount could deepen.

It’s also worth noting that not all crypto transactions are recorded on the blockchain. If someone buys XRP on an exchange and keeps it there, this transaction does not impact the MVRV reading. So while Dogecoin’s deeper MVRV indicates more substantial losses, it doesn’t suggest which coin will recover first.

Dogecoin’s Buyers Came Through Futures, and Its Only ETF Is Closing

Dogecoin’s recent price spike was largely driven by whale activity, as these large holders initiated long positions. These trades profit from price increases and typically use leverage, meaning they borrow money to amplify their positions. However, higher leverage can rapidly intensify losses, creating the risk of forced selling if prices fall too much.

Moreover, Dogecoin is facing challenges from the fund side. Bitwise announced on September 10 that it is liquidating its Dogecoin ETF due to lack of investor interest, with its last trading day set for October 14. The fund saw minimal inflows over ten months and held only about 8.2 million DOGE, worth about $690,000. On many trading days, Dogecoin funds recorded no net inflows at all.

XRP’s Buyers Own the Coins, With $75.6 Million of Fund Inflows in Four Days

In contrast, XRP has a clear advantage. Recent reports show that U.S. spot XRP ETFs collected around $75.6 million in net inflows between September 22 and 25. Each dollar that flows into these ETFs results in an actual purchase of XRP held in the market, enhancing the stability of XRP’s value. Since their launch in November 2025, these funds have amassed about $1.7 billion in total.

Because these funds own the coins outright, they face no risk of margin calls that can trigger forced sales during market downturns. This provides a more secure foundation for XRP’s recent growth than Dogecoin’s, whose gains are underpinned by borrowed funds.

Which Discount Closes First, XRP’s or Dogecoin’s?

In summary, our analysis suggests that XRP is more likely to close its discount first. It has a smaller gap to fill and stronger backing from genuine buyers. Meanwhile, Dogecoin’s recent gains are largely reliant on leverage, and it faces an impending exit of its only regulated fund due to lack of interest.

While XRP holders might see less dramatic gains as the discount closes, they benefit from a more robust, reliable buying base. However, if the trend shifts and XRP begins to see net outflows, it too could struggle to recover, just as Dogecoin continues to face uphill challenges.

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