Solana Is 37% Away From Passing XRP. Could It Happen by the End of 2026?
Solana sits roughly $22 billion behind XRP in market value, and a major network upgrade arrives October 21 just as funds keep pulling money out. Whether those two forces cancel each other out or send Solana surging depends on what…
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Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) needs to gain about 37.3% against XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) to surpass it in market value, which is the key metric used to compare the two cryptocurrencies.
Currently, Solana trades at around $102, giving it a market capitalization of about $60.2 billion, while XRP trades at $1.31, with a market capitalization of roughly $82.6 billion. This means XRP leads Solana by about $22 billion in the Solana vs. XRP ranking.
October has not been kind to Solana. At the month’s start, it traded around $118, peaked at about $124, then fell as low as $102. On top of this, the Solana team has scheduled a significant network upgrade for October 21.
So, can Solana close the 37% gap on XRP by December 31?
Solana Needs a 37% Gain Against XRP, Not Just a Price Target
Market value equals a coin’s price multiplied by its circulating supply—the total number of coins in circulation. This figure is essential for comparing cryptocurrencies with vastly different prices. For example, you can’t assess a $1.31 coin against a $102 coin by price alone.
To close the gap, Solana must outperform XRP. This means that even if both coins drop in value, Solana can still gain ground as long as XRP declines faster. That’s why the focus is on a 37.3% gain against XRP rather than a fixed dollar amount for Solana.
If XRP stays at $1.31, Solana must reach around $140 to surpass it. Given that XRP is likely to change before the year ends, this target could shift. Nevertheless, Solana traded near $149 in January 2026, suggesting $140 is within the range Solana has traded this year, though still below its all-time high.
When looking at their performance, Solana and XRP have moved in different directions recently. Over the past 30 days, Solana has gained 2.7%, while XRP has dropped 5.6%, favoring Solana. However, over the last week, Solana fell 9.8%, while XRP fell 6.3%, giving XRP a slight edge.
Solana’s October Upgrade Arrives as Its Funds Keep Selling
Solana’s upcoming October 21 upgrade aims to reduce transaction finality to about 150 milliseconds. This means that transactions will become permanent and irreversible almost instantly, potentially improving the coin’s attractiveness. However, this upgrade is still subject to change, and a faster network does not automatically mean a higher price.
Despite the upgrade’s promise, funds invested in Solana have seen steady outflows; according to SoSoValue, U.S. Solana funds saw withdrawals in nine of ten sessions in October. This suggests that many investors are selling off their holdings ahead of the anticipated upgrade.
XRP Funds Take In Money for the First Time in Four Sessions
On October 14, XRP funds recorded a net inflow of about $740,000, marking their first inflow in four sessions and the only inflow among the four major coins’ funds that day, as reported by SoSoValue. However, this amount is minimal relative to XRP’s overall market value of $82.6 billion, indicating that while interest is returning, it hasn’t yet created significant buying pressure.
Given XRP’s considerable lead, a single strong week for Solana is unlikely to close the gap. Closing this distance could require months of consistent outperformance compared to XRP, and recent trends show XRP has been holding up better.
Can Solana Surpass XRP by the End of 2026?
It appears challenging for Solana to surpass XRP by December 31. To achieve this, the network upgrade must occur as planned, and Solana funds will need to reverse their trend of outflows post-upgrade. Additionally, Solana must reclaim its October high of about $124 before targeting $140. The $140 target is contingent on XRP remaining at $1.31.
The gap could widen if the upgrade is delayed or if Solana funds continue to flow out after October 21. However, if Solana trades above $124 in November while XRP stays near $1.31 and Solana funds start showing more inflows than outflows, a flip in market value could be possible by December. If Solana remains below $124 at that time, the Solana vs. XRP gap may persist into 2027.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
