Solana Price Prediction: We Asked Claude AI Where Solana Could Trade by the End of 2026

Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, forecasts that Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) could reach $115 by the end of 2026, roughly 8% higher than its current price. This prediction comes with a wide range of $78 to $160.

As of October 21, 2026, SOL is trading around $106. It has risen 2% in the last 24 hours but is down 9.9% for the month, starting October at $118 and dipping as low as $100 between October 14 and 20.

Meanwhile, the Alpenglow upgrade is set to launch on the mainnet on October 21. This upgrade is intended to improve how validators—special computers that confirm transactions—agree on the blockchain’s state. It aims for transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds, though the Solana Foundation has not yet confirmed its activation. So, can Solana actually reach $115, and how much will Alpenglow impact that?

Solana Trades Below Key Averages as Alpenglow Arrives

Currently, SOL is trading below its 20-day average of $111 and its 50-day average of $109. When a cryptocurrency trades below these averages, it typically indicates that sellers have the advantage. Additionally, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is offering little support, priced around $83,316, marking a 5.1% drop for 2026.

Solana’s market value stands at about $62.7 billion, placing it seventh in the cryptocurrency rankings. With about 589.5 million SOL in circulation, a total supply of 636.2 million, and no maximum supply, the current price reflects a higher market cap than at the January 2025 peak.

Claude sees a downward trend across all key timeframes, citing weak averages, ETF outflows, and a sluggish Bitcoin market. However, it also notes that the $100 level held firm in mid-October. In its central scenario, Alpenglow proceeds smoothly, ETF selling slows down, and SOL climbs slightly above its 50-day average

For someone holding 100 SOL, valued at about $10,640 right now, reaching the central target of $115 would mean a total value of $11,500. Conversely, Claude’s low-end forecast of $78 translates to $7,800, while the optimistic projection of $160 equates to $16,000. Hitting the upper end would likely require a substantial year-end rally for Bitcoin, while the lower end assumes a breakdown below $100.

Claude Predicts a Higher Likelihood of Falling Below $80 Than Climbing to $150

According to Claude, SOL has only a 20% chance of trading above $150 by the end of 2026, which would require a 40.9% gain. To do that, SOL would first need to rebound past $111 and then surpass its October open at $118.

Additionally, a return of ETF demand could play a crucial role. The U.S. spot Solana ETFs, which enable investors to gain exposure to SOL through brokerage accounts, currently hold $1.65 billion but have experienced net outflows since October 5. These ETFs last saw consistent buying from September 21 to 29, the month in which SOL peaked at $125.

On the downside, Claude estimates a 25% chance that SOL could drop below $80, a potential 24.8% decline. Historically, a second test of a support level, like the $100 mark, tends to fail more often than the first. However, as companies continue to add SOL to their reserves, the selling appears orderly.

Why Alpenglow May Have Minimal Impact on SOL’s Price

A relevant example is Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) transition to proof-of-stake, known as The Merge, in September 2022. Following a smooth upgrade, ETH prices fell for several weeks. However, if Alpenglow’s expected speed improvements translate into higher transaction volume and app revenue, that usage could support a 10% to 15% price increase.

Looking further ahead, Claude believes there’s a 25% chance that SOL will surpass its record high of $293 before the end of 2027, which would require a 175.6% increase from its current level, around 63.7% below the peak. Such a move would likely depend on Bitcoin hitting new highs and ETF flows turning positive, bringing 100 SOL to around $29,330.

Can Solana Reach $115 by the End of 2026?

Solana could plausibly hit $115 by December, while $150 seems less likely. SOL only needs to recover from its October losses to reach $115, and existing demand could help. However, to achieve this target, SOL must maintain above $100, regain its position above the $109 and $111 averages, and curb ETF outflows. Until SOL closes above $118, discussions about hitting $150 may be premature.

Monitoring early usage data from the Alpenglow upgrade is crucial, as increasing transaction volume could help solidify the price predictions mentioned. A daily close above $111, with ETF inflows returning, could strengthen the outlook for reaching $115, while a drop below $100 might bring Claude’s $78 low estimate back into focus. Claude’s longer view appears in its 2030 forecast for Bitcoin and Solana and our Alpenglow comparison of Solana and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP).

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