Hyperliquid’s Biggest Traders Are Shorting Bitcoin for the First Time Since March. Could BTC Drop Below $75,000?

Hyperliquid’s biggest traders have shifted to net short positions on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) for the first time since March 2026, according to data from Glassnode, a firm specializing in on-chain analytics. A net short position means the positions that profit from a falling price now outweigh those that profit from a rising one. This shift raises the question of whether Bitcoin below $75,000 is next.

Bitcoin is trading at $80,684, 7% above the $75,000 level, after its lowest close in a month on October 26. Despite this recent dip, the overall market remains relatively stable.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reported $110.3 million in inflows, according to SoSoValue. Additionally, the VIX, often called Wall Street’s fear gauge, stood at 18.4, indicating a normal market range. This raises the question of whether these whales anticipate a price decline or are simply protecting their existing holdings.

Hyperliquid Whales’ Positions Are Transparent, Drawing Interest From Traders

Hyperliquid operates as a decentralized exchange specializing in perpetual futures, which are contracts that track Bitcoin’s price indefinitely. Traders can utilize leverage—borrowed money—to enhance their positions. Because Hyperliquid runs on its own blockchain, all trading positions are publicly visible, which allows Glassnode to tally the holdings of the largest accounts.

Traders often follow whale activity since these large holders usually have more resources and better market insights. When these whales collectively shift to short positions, it signals to many in the market that experienced investors are bracing for a downturn, prompting them to consider similar moves.

However, past instances of whales going short haven’t always led to price drops. For example, when they turned short in March, Bitcoin closed at $65,947 on March 29 but then climbed, finishing March at $68,107 and hitting $78,637 by late April. Whales who anticipated a March decline unexpectedly faced a rally that pushed prices past their entry point.

A Hyperliquid Whale Short Can Be a Hedge, Not a Bearish Signal

Whale shorts can serve as a hedge, not solely as a bearish indicator. A whale holding Bitcoin in cold storage or with custodians may open a short position on Hyperliquid to hedge against potential losses without selling their assets. If the price drops, gains from the short position can compensate for losses on their spot holdings.

This means Glassnode’s data could misrepresent these hedges as purely bearish.

Moreover, Hyperliquid represents only a fraction of the larger market. Most Bitcoin trading occurs on centralized exchanges or through ETF share creations that do not involve Hyperliquid. Therefore, whale activity on this single platform doesn’t fully reflect the broader Bitcoin market, which has a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion.

In contrast, options traders seem to be leaning the other way. The put/call ratio, which compares puts (contracts that pay off if prices decline) to calls (contracts that pay off if prices rise), indicates a preference for calls at the moment.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT), the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, currently has a put/call ratio of 0.56, suggesting that calls dominate. However, for short-term contracts expiring on October 29, the ratio rises to 1.33, indicating that near-term traders are willing to pay for downside protection.

Weak Demand in the U.S. Adds Weight to Whale Short Positions

The significance of the whale short positions is amplified by weak demand in the U.S. The Coinbase Premium—the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and on offshore exchanges—has remained negative throughout October. This suggests that U.S. buyers are paying less for Bitcoin compared to international buyers.

ETF inflows have also fluctuated significantly. After a $528.4 million inflow on October 21, a staggering $635.5 million outflow followed on October 22, marking the largest outflow day since June.

Total net assets for ETFs decreased by 7.2%, falling from $110.8 billion on October 5 to $102.8 billion by October 26. While part of this decline is due to Bitcoin’s recent price drop, it suggests funds are entering November with less overall capital.

Bitcoin Faces Key Support Levels Before Potentially Dropping to $75,000

Bitcoin is currently trading below both its 20-day simple moving average of $81,999 and its 50-day average of $81,806. Falling below both averages suggests sellers have dominated the market in October.

The first support level to watch is $79,255, the intraday low recorded on October 26, which is 1.8% lower than the current price. Buyers previously stepped in around $79,107 on October 24. The next key level is $77,600, about 3.8% lower, which Glassnode calls the True Market Mean, the average price active investors paid for Bitcoin. A break below this level may leave many holders at a loss.

We must also consider Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, which has an average acquisition cost of $75,446, about 6.5% below the current price. A drop below this level could raise concerns among investors who view it as a measure of institutional confidence.

Whale shorts can also drive volatility in the opposite direction. If Bitcoin begins to rise, short holders may need to close their positions by buying back, increasing buying pressure. With around $12 billion in options set to expire before the Federal Reserve’s decision on October 28, we may see rapid price movements.

Will the Whale Short Push Bitcoin Below $75,000?

Will whales’ recent shift to short positions push Bitcoin below $75,000, or are they simply hedging existing investments? The coming days will clarify this situation.

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