XRP Analysis: XRP Is Pinned Under Its 20-Day Average at $1.33. What Would Push It Back to $1.40?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is currently priced at $1.28. This is a 3.4% decline in the last 24 hours and 3.8% below its 20-day moving average of $1.33. The 20-day moving average is calculated by averaging the closing prices of the past 20 sessions. When XRP trades below this average, it typically means recent buyers are at a loss.

This drop adds to an ongoing downturn, with XRP down about 14% in October alone. Its last daily close above $1.40 was on October 11, when it reached $1.41, and it is currently trading approximately 65% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 17, 2025.

Ripple’s Positive News Has Not Lifted the XRP Price

Despite several positive developments for Ripple—the company most closely associated with XRP—buyers have shown little interest, pushing XRP down more sharply than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) over the past day.

Ripple secured several key institutional deals in the week of October 26. Notable wins include final U.S. approval for a national trust bank that can hold digital assets for clients and a deal with Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction) to expand its RLUSD, a dollar-backed token. On October 28, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) began offering RLUSD to both retail and institutional clients, and BNY (NYSE: BK) is adding custody support for XRP and RLUSD.

Since its December 2024 launch, RLUSD has grown to a market value exceeding $2.6 billion. However, because RLUSD is a stablecoin, it is designed to maintain a value of $1. This means that RLUSD holders can trade or move it on platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood without needing to buy XRP.

Additionally, Ripple’s revenues benefit the company directly, so XRP holders don’t receive any of them. Consequently, Ripple’s advancements influence XRP prices only through market sentiment, which must translate into actual purchases to drive price changes.

Spot XRP ETFs Saw No Inflows While Sellers Held XRP Under $1.33

Buyer response has been lackluster. Data from SoSoValue indicates that spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold XRP and can be traded like stocks, saw no net inflows on October 27 or 28. These funds currently hold about $1.51 billion, suggesting no new capital has entered the market since Ripple’s recent announcements.

From October 22 to October 28, XRP closed below $1.33 every day. It briefly rose to $1.32 on October 29 but then retreated to $1.28. Currently, XRP is trading at its 200-day moving average of $1.28, a key indicator for assessing long-term trends.

It is also 8.6% below its 50-day average of $1.40, suggesting that the overall upward trend is under pressure while recent momentum has shifted downward.

Since October 26, XRP has been trading within a narrow range between $1.27 and $1.34. This range consists of support—prices where buyers typically come in—and resistance—prices where sellers tend to dominate. The last time XRP approached the $1.40 mark was on October 21, when it nearly reached that level but closed at $1.36 following a sell-off.

The rebound days on October 26 and 27 saw significantly lower trading volumes than the sell-offs on October 2 and October 8. Rallies on thinner volume often stall because fewer buyers are willing to invest as prices rise.

By comparison, in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin fell 0.5%, Ethereum dropped 1.3%, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) declined 1.5%, while XRP fell 3.4%, the weakest performer of the four.

This month has brought a more balanced picture, with XRP’s 14% drop closely tracking Ethereum’s 12.4% and Solana’s 13.9%, while Bitcoin is down only 3.1%. As of 2026 so far, XRP is down roughly 31%, steeper than Bitcoin’s 7.5% and Ethereum’s 20.8%.

Can the XRP Price Turn $1.33 Back Into a Floor and Reach $1.40?

XRP’s weak performance today likely stems from its trading behavior around Ripple’s announcements. Historically, XRP tends to attract buyers before Ripple shares news. But when positive news arrives without new investment, some buyers cash out, a trend known as “sell the news.” In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum are less influenced by company-specific news and therefore tend to see smaller price drops.

For XRP to climb back to $1.40, it likely needs new investment flowing into spot XRP ETFs or increased demand tied to the growth of RLUSD and BNY’s trade-finance initiatives. Without positive fund flows, Ripple’s headlines might lift sentiment but won’t move the price much. This could keep XRP below the $1.33 level longer, and a close under $1.27 could trigger further declines.

The first milestone is closing above $1.33, which XRP last did on October 21. The next target is a close above the week’s high of $1.34, while the 50-day average sits at $1.40.

XRP last saw significant buying pressure in August, when prices skyrocketed from $1.11 to $1.52 between August 19 and August 23 before cooling off at $1.43. A breakout above $1.34 without accompanying fund inflows could spark another short-lived rally.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.