XRP Options Point to a 10% Move This Week, the Widest of Any Major Coin. Could XRP Fall Below $1?
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Options traders predict that XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) will swing about 9.7% in either direction by November 15, 2026. This level of volatility surpasses that of any other major cryptocurrency. With XRP trading at $1.04 on November 10, such a swing could see XRP fall below $1. XRP is down 6% in 24 hours and 18.4% over the week, dropping it to sixth place in market capitalization behind USD Coin.
Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) shared these insights on X through its Coinbase Markets account. The options market implies a price movement of plus or minus 9.7% for XRP, compared to 9.3% for Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), 8.5% for Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and 6% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Coinbase Markets also noted that XRP’s implied movement is 1.97 times its median weekly movement, showcasing the largest premium in this group.
XRP closed at $1.10 on November 9, having dropped 26% from its 30-day high of $1.41 on October 11. So could XRP fall below $1 within the range the options market already expects?
XRP Options Indicate a Range of $0.94 to $1.14 Until November 15
The implied movement reflects the price swings options traders are hedging against, based on XRP option prices. A one-standard-deviation move of 9.7% indicates that the market expects XRP to settle within this range about two-thirds of the time.
Starting from $1.04, this range extends from about $0.94 at the lower end to approximately $1.14 at the higher end. Since the implied range doesn’t dictate direction, the options price in the potential for both a rise and a decline.
To reach $1, XRP only needs to decrease by 3.8%, well within the expected range. The lower end of this range also falls below XRP’s August 16 closing low of $0.99, suggesting that a drop below $1 is consistent with current market expectations.
XRP Has Little Support Above $1 and Old Lows Below It
XRP has already dipped below its low of $1.07 set on November 9, a level we previously highlighted as its lowest since August. The daily relative strength index, which measures price momentum, is currently near 26, indicating significant selling pressure.
| Level | Description | Distance From $1.04 |
|---|---|---|
| $1.36 | 50-day moving average | +30.8% |
| $1.25 | 20-day moving average | +20.2% |
| $1.18 | Bitrue’s daily-close recovery signal | +13.5% |
| $1.14 | Top of the options-implied range | +9.7% |
| $1 | Support tested in June and August | -3.8% |
| $0.99 | Closing low from August 16 | -4.8% |
| $0.98 | Analysts’ target based on August low | -5.8% |
| $0.94 | Bottom of the options-implied range | -9.7% |
| $0.90 and $0.80 | Next round-number support levels | -13.5% and -23.1% |
Analysts caution that breaking below $1 could trigger stop-loss selling, which consists of automatic sell orders meant to limit losses. This could lead XRP further down to its August low near $0.98. Our June analysis also indicated that the next support levels to watch would be $0.90 and $0.80.
XRP’s relationship with the $1 mark has been inconsistent. After losing this level in 2021, it took nearly three years to regain it. However, buyers stepped in this August when XRP closed at $1.27 following the White House crypto policy summit on August 19.
On the higher end, Bitrue identifies a daily close above $1.18 as a bullish signal. This level is above the options-implied range, while the 20-day average of $1.25 and the 50-day average of $1.36 are even further away.
XRP’s ETF Buyers and the CLARITY Act Have Both Gone Quiet
Spot XRP ETFs reported zero net inflows from November 3 to 6. Inflows of about $15.3 million on June 29 helped keep XRP above $1 at the time. Without steady ETF buying, sellers faced little resistance as the token declined after losing the $1.35 level in mid-October.
Additionally, the CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal to place digital commodities like XRP under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has stalled. The bill failed to reach the necessary votes in a Senate cloture vote, 49-50, on September 15, and no new vote was scheduled by November 7. With Democrats winning both chambers in the midterms, the bill could be delayed further or change course.
The CLARITY Act has previously boosted XRP’s price. Following a 15-9 vote from the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, XRP surged above $1.50. However, no significant congressional actions are scheduled before November 15, leaving XRP to drift as it did throughout October’s downturn.
Will XRP Fall Below $1 by November 15?
It’s likely that XRP will trade below $1 at some point before November 15, as it only requires a decrease of 3.8%, well within the 9.7% price swing anticipated by options traders. With both ETF buyers and legislative progress stalled, a deeper decline could push XRP below the $0.99 August low and toward the $0.98 and $0.90 support levels.
While oversold conditions present a potential opportunity for buyers, XRP has historically traded higher three months later in 12 of 17 similar cases; however, a daily close above $1.18 remains crucial for any recovery to take shape.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
