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Live Coverage Has Ended

Prediction Markets Has Coinbase with a 74% Chance of Beating Earnings

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By Joel South Published

Live Blog Update #2 Published

← Back to Full Coverage: Live: Complete Coinbase Earnings Coverage

Popular prediction market Polymarket currently assigns Coinbase Global (COIN) a 74% chance of beating quarterly earnings, down 1 percentage point in the past day.

Coinbase heads into tonight’s report with optimism high and expectations higher. The stock trades near $337 after a volatile October, supported by Bitcoin’s rally and improving institutional inflows. Shares are up roughly 30% year to date, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s operating leverage as crypto adoption accelerates.

Wall Street expects Q3 revenue of $1.81 billion and EPS of $1.10, representing 50% and 321% year-over-year growth, respectively. Those estimates follow a standout Q2 where Coinbase posted EPS of $5.14 versus $1.51 expected, a 240% upside surprise driven by trading activity and tight expense control.

All Updates from Live Coverage

Final Takeaway

| Joel South
Live

Coinbase’s Q3 earnings reinforces its positioning as the emerging “financial super-app” for crypto. Derivatives integration, custody dominance, and stablecoin flywheel offer durable revenue drivers even as trading moderates. Earnings power is now anchored by a recurring revenue base rather than market beta.

Management Commentary

| Joel South
Live

“We’re progressing toward the Everything Exchange vision and scaling payments by advancing stablecoin adoption with USDC.” — Coinbase Shareholder Letter, p. 1

Management reiterated its structural push beyond trading toward payments, custody, and derivatives — framing Coinbase as the bridge between traditional finance and on-chain economies. The tone remains bullish on policy clarity and institutional adoption.

Coinbase Up After Earnings, What You Need to Know

| Joel South
Live

Coinbase turned in another robust print, extending its streak of profitable quarters despite a calmer trading environment. Net income reached $433 million, Adjusted EBITDA hit $801 million, and the company reaffirmed its ability to convert crypto volatility into margin leverage. With strong stablecoin inflows, record custody balances, and derivatives scaling post-Deribit, Coinbase’s “Everything Exchange” strategy is clearly gaining traction.

Metric Actual Estimate QoQ / YoY Beat / Miss
Revenue $1.79 B $1.81 B (est.) +26% YoY / +26% QoQ Inline
EPS (Diluted) $1.50 $1.10 (est.) +436% YoY / –71% QoQ Beat
Adj. EBITDA $801 M (45% margin) ~$720 M (est.) +57% YoY Beat
Net Income $433 M $350 M (est.) +474% YoY Beat

Revenue momentum should persist into Q4 with continued USDC expansion and institutional engagement offsetting lower trading spreads. Expense growth reflects integration of Deribit and incremental product investments but remains well-controlled.

Metric Q4 2025 Guidance Prior Q3 Guide Consensus Direction
Subscription & Services Revenue $710 – $790 M $665 – $745 M ~$730 M 📈 Raised
Tech + G&A Expenses $925 – $975 M $810 – $860 M — 📉 Higher (cost growth from Deribit/Echo)
Sales & Marketing Expenses $215 – $315 M $190 – $290 M — ⚖️ Flat range
Transaction Revenue (October run-rate) ≈ $385 M — — ⚖️ Steady

Earnings History and Stock Performance

| Joel South
Live
Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 14-Day Move
Q2 2025 +240.52% –16.70% –17.73% –14.00%
Q1 2025 –87.18% –3.48% +18.37% +31.69%
Q4 2024 +119.69% –7.98% –13.93% –30.10%
Q3 2024 –27.11% –15.34% +20.10% +34.47%
View Full Live Blog (5 Updates)
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About the Author Joel South →

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

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