The Retirees Who Left Florida for Good Nearly All Landed in the Same Three States
Thousands of retirees have quietly reversed course and sold their Florida homes a second time, but the state they almost all pick next depends on a portfolio gap most people never calculate before packing.
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For years, the standard retirement plan went like this: work up north, sell the house, and move to Florida. More and more people now do a second move. After some hurricane seasons, a condo assessment or two, and grandchildren settling far away, they sell again and head partway back north. This piece looks at where those retirees end up, what a budget costs in each state, and what portfolio it takes to fund one.
Carolinas and Tennessee Now Draw Florida’s Departing Retirees
Florida’s net gain in retirees was just 815 in 2025. That came from 45,696 moving in and 44,881 moving out. South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee have led inbound migration rankings for three consecutive years. The people making this move are called “Halfbacks.” They usually land in western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and eastern Tennessee. Census data also show that Florida dominated the number of new residents arriving in Georgia and North Carolina.
What a Halfback Budget Costs in Each State
The average U.S. household spent $78,535 in 2024, and this figure covers all households, not just retirees, so it serves as a rough working budget. Adjusting it by each state’s price index from the BEA gives the following:
| State | Price Index | Adjusted Budget |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | 103.414 | $81,200 |
| North Carolina | 94.326 | $74,100 |
| South Carolina | 93.749 | $73,600 |
| Tennessee | 91.87 | $72,150 |
Within each budget, Medicare Part B costs $202.90 per person per month, or about $4,870 for a couple. Each person also has a $283 deductible. The budget also has to set aside money for a roof, replacement cars, and gifts. Those costs follow retirees to any state.
Turning the Gap Into a Portfolio Number
According to the SSA, the average retired worker gets $2,081.16 a month, and the average spouse gets $985.99. Together, that’s about $36,800 a year. The portfolio must cover a shortfall of $44,400 in Florida, $37,300 in North Carolina, $36,800 in South Carolina, and $35,300 in Tennessee. A 4% withdrawal rate fits a 30-year retirement. At that rate, the portfolio targets are about $1.11 million, $932,000, $920,000 and $884,000. Moving from Florida to Tennessee lowers the target by about $227,000.
When the higher earner claims, the answer also changes. Waiting from full retirement age to 70 raises that worker’s benefit by about 24%. That lifts household income to about $42,800 and brings the Tennessee target down to about $734,000. Right now, the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is tracking at 3.3%.
Income Tax Florida Retirees Take On When They Leave
Florida retirees have gotten used to paying no state tax on their withdrawals. Tennessee keeps that in place. North Carolina charges a flat 3.99% for 2026. It exempts Social Security but taxes IRA and 401(k) withdrawals.
If withdrawals are raised to cover that tax, the North Carolina target rises to about $971,000 before the standard deduction. South Carolina exempts Social Security. It allows a $10,000 retirement deduction plus a $15k senior deduction. Property taxes change the picture again. The Tax Foundation ranks Tennessee 33rd on property tax, North Carolina 20th, and South Carolina 42nd. After adjusting for income, the overall tax burden is $5,333 in Tennessee, $6,021 in North Carolina, and $6,167 in South Carolina, compared with $5,110 in Florida.
Home equity is the easiest part to miss. Vanguard found that about 60% of retirees who move go to a cheaper area. Those movers typically freed up about $100,000 in home equity. Selling right now is harder, though, and existing-home sales fell to 3.98 million, the lowest reading in the recent series. Leaving Florida also gives up the Save Our Homes cap on the home’s taxable value. The new home is assessed at its full current value.
What It Takes to Make the Halfback Move Work
For a couple with average Social Security benefits, the move works with about $884,000 to $971,000 invested, depending on the state. The plan assumes an initial withdrawal of 4%, adjusted each year for inflation. Historically, that rate has held up over 30 years with a balanced mix of stock index funds and bonds or a Treasury ladder (we made the full case against leaning on the 4% figure, and what to run instead, in a free report here). If the higher earner delays Social Security to 70, the Tennessee target falls toward $734,000.
Equity from the Florida house can make up part of the gap, if the home sells at a reasonable price. Portfolio size depends on more than state price levels. Income tax on withdrawals, property tax, and how quickly the Florida home sells all change the result.
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David Beren has been a Flywheel Publishing contributor since 2022. Writing for 24/7 Wall St. since 2023, David loves to write about topics of all shapes and sizes. As a technology expert, David focuses heavily on consumer electronics brands, automobiles, and general technology. He has previously written for LifeWire, formerly About.com. As a part-time freelance writer, David’s “day job” has been working on and leading social media for multiple Fortune 100 brands. David loves the flexibility of this field and its ability to reach customers exactly where they like to spend their time. Additionally, David previously published his own blog, TmoNews.com, which reached 3 million readers in its first year. In addition to freelance and social media work, David loves to spend time with his family and children and relive the glory days of video game consoles by playing any retro game console he can get his hands on.
