Can You Retire on $500,000? Wes Moss Says It’s Possible but Difficult. Here’s His Math

Wes Moss, a certified financial planner and chief investment strategist at Capital Investment Advisors, used the Nov. 3 “Ask An Advisor” segment of The Clark Howard Podcast to answer a question most retirement advice skips. Wes Moss said: “Can you retire on 500k? The short answer is it is possible, but it is difficult. And just because it’s difficult doesn’t mean it’s not possible.”

Plenty of families end up near that number. Wes Moss said a new Fed wealth report puts median net worth for Americans ages 65 to 70 at $431,000. If you retire on a sum like that and your assumptions are wrong, you probably won’t see the mistake for about a decade. By then, the account may be close to empty.

Moss Is Right, but Only Under Three Conditions

My conclusion: the math holds up. It works for a married couple with a paid-off house who claim Social Security at 65 or later. If you don’t fit all three conditions, it gets shaky quickly.

Here is his math, one step at a time:

1. Pick a withdrawal rate. Wes Moss uses 5%. He admits that is above the classic 4% rule and “getting a little high.”
2. Apply it to the nest egg. On $500,000, Wes Moss gets $25,000 a year, or about $2,000 a month.
3. Add two Social Security checks. Wes Moss assumes each spouse collects $2,000 per month.
4. Total it up. Wes Moss gets at $6,000 a month, which he rounds to over $70k a year.

With no mortgage, Moss calls that result “very possible and very likely.” For most families, housing is the biggest monthly bill. Take it away and Moss’s $6,000 a month goes much further.

Timing is the third condition. Moss said claiming at 62 probably fails because your benefit is at its lowest and Medicare hasn’t started yet: “So you have this three-year gap, and you have that extra expense for health care.” His fix is to wait “at least until 65; 67 is better.”

Where His Numbers Run Optimistic

The Social Security Administration estimates the average senior couple with two benefits collects $3,208 a month after the 2026 COLA. Use that number instead, and the couple’s income falls to $62,496 a year. That leaves a $792 hole every month.

Spending is the next pressure point. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts average families’ spending at $81,905 for 2025. Even Moss’s full $72,000 comes up $9,905 short. Retirees skip commuting and payroll taxes, so that gap exaggerates things. Still, it shows how thin the margin is.

In 2026, Medicare Part B alone costs $202.90 per person each month. For a couple, that is $4,870 a year before Part D, deductibles, or a supplement. Consumer prices have also climbed about 9% since January 2024, so your withdrawals have to rise over time to buy the same things.

An early market drop is the biggest threat. At 4%, the same portfolio pays $20,000 a year, or about $1,667 a month.

Now picture a 20% decline in year one (an illustrative figure). The $25,000 draw then becomes more than 6% of a $400,000 balance. Every share sold at those low prices makes the loss permanent.

One Check, or Two Decides Your Outcome

The variable that matters most is how many Social Security checks come into the house. Moss said: “It’s really hard to do this when you’re single because you have just one Social Security payment.”

Run the numbers for a single retiree with Moss’s $500,000. A $2,000 withdrawal plus one matching check comes to $4,000 a month, compared with $6,000 for the couple. Property taxes, insurance, and car costs barely change when there is one person instead of two.

Moss, who takes listener questions at wesmoss.com/ask, lays out his retirement framework in The Retire Sooner Method.

Test Moss’s $500,000 Math Before Picking a Date

1. Replace his Social Security guess with yours. Pull your estimates at SSA.gov for ages 62, 67, and 70. Swap your real figures in for Moss’s $2,000 per spouse.
2. Run 4% and Moss’s 5% side by side. Multiply your balance by each rate and add your benefits. Compare both amounts with your last 12 months of spending, leaving out any mortgage payment.
3. Budget healthcare as its own line. Set aside Part B premiums plus the $283 annual deductible for each spouse. If you’ll retire before 65, price a marketplace plan first.
4. Hold a cash buffer. Keep one to two years of withdrawals in cash or short-term Treasuries. Then a downturn won’t force you to sell stocks at a loss.
5. Pay off the mortgage before you leave work. Every condition in Moss’s math depends on having mostly paid off your home.

By Moss’s math, $500,000 can pay for retirement when two Social Security checks and a paid-off house carry most of the load. If either is missing, the portfolio must deliver more than Moss’s 5% withdrawal can safely support.

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