Election day is looming on the horizon — and nobody is quite sure how the 2024 U.S. presidential election will ultimately turn out. Current Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is duking it out against former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump. Ahead of November 4th, former staffers are beginning to speak out against Trump. Former Chief-of-Staff John Kelly even went so far as to call Trump a “dictator,” or at least reference that he has a dictatorial style of ruling. On the other side of the aisle, many critics of Harris state that she overperforms on LGBTQIA+ issues and will raise taxes. Both sides are contentious and it feels as though the political landscape is more contentious than ever. (Prediction: these 4 stocks will pop if Kamala Harris wins.)
The outcome will likely come down to closely contested swing states. This election cycle, Harris and Trump are focusing on Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with both candidates polling intensely closely. However, other states are pretty much a lock: California will most likely go blue for Harris and, based on current polling trends, political affiliations, and historical voting patterns, Texas will go blue for Trump. According to official records from the Federal Election Commission, the last time Texas went to a Democratic candidate was in 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford, a Republican. Here, 24/7 Wall St. explored the 30 Texan counties where an average of 85% of voters (or more) have cast a ballot for Republicans over the last four presidential elections. If this holds true, these same counties will help deliver Texas and its 40 electoral votes to Trump. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.
Why You Should Care
Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include Texas, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Trump in 2024. Outcomes in states like Texas are driven, in part, by party strongholds at the county-level. Understanding where primarily Republican counties exist gives you a better understanding of the communities voting for Trump and their needs or interests in the presidential race.
Check out the most Republican counties in Texas:
30. Callahan County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.4% Democratic; 85.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 14.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 13,869
29. Mills County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.0% Democratic; 85.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 4,501
28. Kimble County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.1% Democratic; 85.7% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 11.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 18.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 4,316
27. Stephens County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.0% Democratic; 85.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 81.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 9,260
26. Coleman County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.9% Democratic; 85.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 88.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 81.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 7,808
25. Hutchinson County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.5% Democratic; 85.9% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 11.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 87.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 20,595
24. Gaines County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.6% Democratic; 86.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 12.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 84.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 16.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 83.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 21,523
23. Hemphill County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.2% Democratic; 86.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 12.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 86.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.7% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 3,371
22. Coke County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.9% Democratic; 86.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 19.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 79.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 3,305
21. Throckmorton County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 13.2% Democratic; 86.3% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 13.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 19.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 80.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 1,439
20. Archer County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 12.0% Democratic; 86.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 17.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 82.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 8,649
19. Gray County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 11.6% Democratic; 87.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 10.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 87.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 12.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 14.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 21,272
18. Loving County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.6% Democratic; 87.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 89.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 14.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.8% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 96
17. Sherman County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.9% Democratic; 87.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 11.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 2,414
16. Carson County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.5% Democratic; 87.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 5,801
15. Jack County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.9% Democratic; 88.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 83.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 8,588
14. Lipscomb County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.6% Democratic; 88.1% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 10.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 3,038
13. Hartley County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.1% Democratic; 88.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.2% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 5,369
12. Sterling County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.4% Democratic; 88.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 91.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 11.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 86.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 6.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 15.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 84.0% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 1,392
11. Wheeler County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 10.1% Democratic; 89.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 7.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 92.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 14.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 4,980
10. Shackelford County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.5% Democratic; 89.4% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 91.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 91.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 13.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 85.3% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 3,134
9. Hansford County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.1% Democratic; 89.5% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 88.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 5,270
8. Armstrong County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 9.1% Democratic; 89.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 93.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 10.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 12.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 86.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 1,912
7. Ochiltree County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.7% Democratic; 89.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 9.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 89.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 9.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 87.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 7.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.7% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 9,924
6. Oldham County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.9% Democratic; 90.0% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 8.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 90.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 89.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 88.4% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 2,171
5. Motley County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 8.5% Democratic; 90.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 7.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 92.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 6.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 92.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 9.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.9% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 1,223
4. Borden County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 7.9% Democratic; 90.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 3.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 95.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 8.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 90.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 8.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 89.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 11.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 87.5% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 686
3. Glasscock County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 7.1% Democratic; 91.6% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 6.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 93.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 5.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 91.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 7.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 91.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 9.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 90.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 1,068
2. Roberts County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 5.2% Democratic; 93.8% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 3.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 96.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 3.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 94.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 6.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 7.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.1% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 764
1. King County
- Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 4.2% Democratic; 94.2% Republican
- Popular vote split in 2020 election: 5.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 95.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2016 election: 3.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 93.7% Republican (Donald Trump)
- Popular vote split in 2012 election: 3.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 95.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
- Popular vote split in 2008 election: 4.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 92.6% Republican (John McCain)
- County population: 216
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