The number of daily new cases appears to finally be slowing across the country. Average daily new cases are declining in most states after a surge that lasted for most of June and July. However, the latest projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show that while new cases may be declining, the majority of states will not reach peak active infections until September or later.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — an independent global health research center at the University of Washington — on the estimated peak COVID-19 dates for every state, both in terms of the total number of estimated active infections and the total number of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 patients.
When the IHME released its projections on June 1, at a time when COVID-19 appeared to be receding across the country, the institute estimated that every state had hit its peak on or before that date. Based on the revised round of projections released on Aug. 6, however, 31 states have not yet reached their peaks for active infections, and 28 have not yet reached peak hospital bed usage. Notably, a dozen states that will not reach peak cases until at least Dec. 1.
The vast majority of states that have yet to reach peak dates, as might be expected, are states where the average number of daily new cases dramatically increased earlier this summer, such as Nevada, South Carolina, and Texas. In Texas, for example, the number of daily new cases increased more than fivefold from an average of roughly six daily new cases per 100,000 people in early June to over 30 daily new cases per 100,000 in early August. The IHME projects that Texas will not reach peak daily cases until Sept. 26 and will not reach peak hospital bed usage until Oct. 10. These are the states where COVID-19 is growing the fastest.