Much of the United States is experiencing an alarming resurgence in COVID-19 cases. The number of daily new cases in the U.S. has well surpassed the levels at the initial peak back in March and April, regularly exceeding 60,000 per day. A number of states have recently reported record-high numbers of newly diagnosed cases of COVID-19, and the latest projections show the worst may still be in store for more than a dozen states.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on the estimated peak COVID-19 dates for every state, both in terms of the total number of active infections and the total number of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 patients.
When the IMHE released its projections on June 1, at a time when COVID-19 appeared to be receding across the country, the institute estimated that every state had hit its peak on or before that date. Based on the revised round of projections released on July 14, however, 16 different states have not yet reached their peaks in estimated active infections.
The vast majority of these, as might be expected, are states where the average number of daily new cases has dramatically increased in recent weeks, such as Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, and Texas. In Florida, for example, the number of daily new cases more than quadrupled to a nation-worst 54 daily new cases per 100,000 people in the most recent week compared to a month ago.The IHME projects Florida will not reach peak daily cases until October 24 and will not reach peak daily deaths until at least November 1. These are the states where COVID-19 is growing the fastest.
According to the IHME, many states reached peak estimated cases in late March and early April, including states like Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which until recently had by far the highest cumulative number of reported cases per capita since the start of the pandemic, despite reporting large declines in daily new cases. However, these states are now being surpassed in total reported cases by states in the South and the Southwest. Arizona, which the IHME estimates reached peak daily cases on June 30, now has the second most diagnosed cases per capita, behind only one state. These are the states with the most COVID-19 cases.