Much of the United States is experiencing an alarming resurgence in COVID-19 cases. The number of daily new cases in the U.S. has returned to peak levels, regularly exceeding 30,000 per day. A number of states have recently reported record high numbers of newly diagnosed cases of COVID-19, and the latest projections show the worst may still be in store for more than a dozen states.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on the estimated peak COVID-19 dates for every state, both in terms of the total number of estimated active infections and the total number of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 patients.
When the IMHE released its projections on June 1, the institute estimated that every state had hit its peak on or before that date. Based on the latest round of projections, current as of June 15, 18 different states will not reach their peak in estimated active infections until September or later.
The vast majority of these, as might be expected, are states where the average number of daily new cases has dramatically increased in recent weeks, such as Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, and Texas. In Arizona, for example, the number of daily new cases nearly doubled to a nation-worst 29 daily new cases per 100,000 people in the most recent week compared to the previous week. These are the states where COVID-19 is growing the fastest.
According to the IHME, many states reached peak estimated cases in late March and early April, including states like Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which still have among the highest cumulative number of reported cases per capita since the start of the pandemic, despite reporting large declines in daily new cases. These states could eventually be surpassed in total reported cases sooner rather than later, as cases continue to spike in states in the South and Southwest. These are the states with the most COVID-19 cases.
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