According to the projections of one organization, the U.S. will reach 310,000 COVID-19-related deaths by the end of 2020. This estimate, which comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, is significantly higher than the organization’s early June forecast of 135,100 deaths by the end of 2020. The IHME took into account in its latest projections the upcoming school year and the increase in the number of Americans returning to work.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — an independent global health research center at the University of Washington — on the estimated peak COVID-19 dates for every state, both in terms of the total number of estimated active infections and the total number of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 patients.
When the IHME released its projections on May 29, at a time when the spread of COVID-19 appeared to be slowing across the country, the institute estimated that every state but one had hit its peak on or before that date. Based on the revised round of projections released on Aug. 21, however, 36 states have not yet reached their peaks for active infections, and 30 have not yet reached peak hospital bed usage. Notably, there are 15 states that will not reach peak cases until at least Dec. 1.
Many of the states that have yet to reach peak dates are those where the average number of daily new cases dramatically increased throughout the summer, like Texas, Georgia and Nevada. There are also a large number of states that are just starting to see significant increases in case counts, such as Hawaii, North Dakota, and South Dakota, and will not peak until at least the winter.
In Hawaii, for example, the number of new cases per 100,000 jumped from 10 a day in the week ending Aug. 9 to 14 a day in the week ending Aug. 23, the largest increase of any state. The IMHE projects that Hawaii will not reach peak cases or hospital bed usage until Dec. 1 or later. These are the states where the virus spread is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).