As the late summer surge of COVID-19 began to fall sharply in late October, people began to believe they would get a holiday respite. Restaurants resumed indoor dining. Sports arenas opened. Vaccinated people were told they could join other vaccinated people at home. And it appeared that it would be much safer to fly, which helped trigger a spike in air travel over the Thanksgiving weekend.
In the past two weeks, however, the COVID-19 situation in the United States and most of the world has changed radically. The omicron variant has caused spikes in infection in many countries worldwide as it spreads much more rapidly than other variants. The World Health Organization reports that in areas with local spread, cases can double in 1.5 to 3.0 days. (This country has the most COVID-19 deaths in the world.)
Among the reactions to this spread are new lockdowns and restrictions on travel. Several European nations have all but locked down travel. The Wall Street Journal notes, “Germany’s travel restriction applies to all residents of the U.K., Northern Ireland, the Channel Islands and all British overseas territories, according to the Robert Koch Institute, which maintains the list of affected countries.”
For Americans considering overseas travel, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention keeps a list of COVID-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination. The CDC classifies countries by four COVID-19 risk levels, the most dangerous one labeled “COVID-19 very high.” At this level, the CDC’s recommendation is to “avoid travel to these destinations.”
However, most Americans who travel do not leave the country. The areas of risk for these travelers fall primarily into two categories. The first concerns state and local rules for vaccination, masking, and social distancing. According to the AARP, some states have no mask rules at all. While 61% or Americans are vaccinated, the vaccination rate is as low as 50% in some states, including Alabama, Mississippi, and Wyoming.
The second concern when traveling is the local infection rate — whether an area is considered a hotspot. Some organizations even predict the trend of infections. For example, the Mayo Clinic’s tracker shows a rolling average of daily cases for the past week, which it considers the best sign of hotspots. The clinic’s experts monitor the seven-day average instead of daily new cases, especially since local health departments have shifted their focus to vaccine reporting and no longer report case counts every 24 hours. Mayo Clinic also gives a 14-day forecast.
For better comparison, the most common measure is cases per 100,000 residents. And the most common measure to track hotspots is based on average new daily cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days. (These are the 20 states that will be hit hardest by COVID-19 by Christmas.)
It is highly unusual for the seven-day average of new daily cases per 100,000 residents to be over 100. To find the county hotspots, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed federal, state, and local COVID-19 data. There are 108 counties with a seven-day average of over 100 cases per 100,000. We listed the top 50 counties.
Click here to see the most dangerous place to go for the holidays
50. Calhoun County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 115 per 100,000 people (total: 6)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,675 per 100,000 people (total: 902)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 36
> Population: 4,830
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Source: Wikimedia Commons
49. Jackson County, Indiana
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 116 per 100,000 people (total: 51)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,798 per 100,000 people (total: 8,276)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 383
> Population: 44,025
Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
48. Chautauqua County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 116 per 100,000 people (total: 4)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,477 per 100,000 people (total: 614)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 37
> Population: 3,323
47. Wayne County, Iowa
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 117 per 100,000 people (total: 8)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.1%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 14,388 per 100,000 people (total: 925)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 56
> Population: 6,429
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46. Dunn County, Wisconsin
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 117 per 100,000 people (total: 53)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,501 per 100,000 people (total: 9,176)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 370
> Population: 44,759
45. Pope County, Minnesota
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 117 per 100,000 people (total: 13)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.3%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,212 per 100,000 people (total: 2,233)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 112
> Population: 11,048
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Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
44. Fayette County, Indiana
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 118 per 100,000 people (total: 27)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 21,376 per 100,000 people (total: 4,958)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 244
> Population: 23,194
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Source: benkrut / iStock via Getty Images
43. Greene County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 118 per 100,000 people (total: 16)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.4%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,246 per 100,000 people (total: 2,396)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 140
> Population: 13,132
Source: mtcurado / iStock via Getty Images
42. Union County, New Mexico
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 119 per 100,000 people (total: 5)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 12,025 per 100,000 people (total: 497)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 37
> Population: 4,133
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41. Roger Mills County, Oklahoma
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 119 per 100,000 people (total: 4)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,917 per 100,000 people (total: 657)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 25
> Population: 3,667
Source: Photo by Liz Roll / FEMA
40. Decatur County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 119 per 100,000 people (total: 3)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.4%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,937 per 100,000 people (total: 513)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 27
> Population: 2,860
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Source: Leonid Andronov / iStock via Getty Images
39. Cuyahoga County, Ohio
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 120 per 100,000 people (total: 1,497)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 8.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 15,434 per 100,000 people (total: 192,533)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 19,018
> Population: 1,247,451
38. Coffey County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 120 per 100,000 people (total: 10)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,476 per 100,000 people (total: 1,525)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 92
> Population: 8,254
37. Polk County, Wisconsin
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 121 per 100,000 people (total: 52)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.3%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,963 per 100,000 people (total: 9,106)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 384
> Population: 43,438
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36. Shelby County, Indiana
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 121 per 100,000 people (total: 54)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.1%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,230 per 100,000 people (total: 8,990)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 423
> Population: 44,438
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
35. Pike County, Indiana
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 121 per 100,000 people (total: 15)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.4%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 21,643 per 100,000 people (total: 2,679)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 114
> Population: 12,378
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34. Marathon County, Wisconsin
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 122 per 100,000 people (total: 165)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,185 per 100,000 people (total: 27,330)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 1,145
> Population: 135,396
Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
33. Stafford County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 123 per 100,000 people (total: 5)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.3%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 19,900 per 100,000 people (total: 832)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 41
> Population: 4,181
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
32. De Witt County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 123 per 100,000 people (total: 20)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,091 per 100,000 people (total: 2,723)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 153
> Population: 15,932
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Source: EJJohnsonPhotography / Getty Images
31. Piscataquis County, Maine
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 123 per 100,000 people (total: 21)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.6%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 11,214 per 100,000 people (total: 1,888)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 136
> Population: 16,836
30. Roosevelt County, New Mexico
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 124 per 100,000 people (total: 23)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,932 per 100,000 people (total: 3,387)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 206
> Population: 18,888
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29. Ogle County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 124 per 100,000 people (total: 63)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,579 per 100,000 people (total: 9,480)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 469
> Population: 51,025
28. Vermilion County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 126 per 100,000 people (total: 98)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 23,166 per 100,000 people (total: 17,968)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 723
> Population: 77,563
Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
27. Wolfe County, Kentucky
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 126 per 100,000 people (total: 9)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 19,204 per 100,000 people (total: 1,384)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 68
> Population: 7,207
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Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
26. Mason County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 127 per 100,000 people (total: 17)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.1%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,604 per 100,000 people (total: 2,534)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 123
> Population: 13,621
Source: sbossert / iStock via Getty Images
25. Cheshire County, New Hampshire
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 127 per 100,000 people (total: 97)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 11,152 per 100,000 people (total: 8,480)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 698
> Population: 76,042
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24. Waseca County, Minnesota
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 128 per 100,000 people (total: 24)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.6%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 22,204 per 100,000 people (total: 4,161)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 122
> Population: 18,740
23. Clay County, West Virginia
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 129 per 100,000 people (total: 11)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,901 per 100,000 people (total: 1,559)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 118
> Population: 8,709
22. Woodson County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 129 per 100,000 people (total: 4)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.4%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 16,060 per 100,000 people (total: 507)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 38
> Population: 3,157
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Source: James_Gabbert / iStock via Getty Images
21. Perkins County, South Dakota
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 134 per 100,000 people (total: 4)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.5%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 17,984 per 100,000 people (total: 521)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 31
> Population: 2,897
Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
20. Wood County, Wisconsin
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 137 per 100,000 people (total: 100)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 19,285 per 100,000 people (total: 14,100)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 676
> Population: 73,112
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Source: DenisTangneyJr / iStock via Getty Images
19. Sullivan County, New Hampshire
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 137 per 100,000 people (total: 59)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.5%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 13,382 per 100,000 people (total: 5,768)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 397
> Population: 43,104
Source: GracedByTheLight / iStock via Getty Images
18. Cimarron County, Oklahoma
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 137 per 100,000 people (total: 3)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.4%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,077 per 100,000 people (total: 393)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 20
> Population: 2,174
Source: DenisTangneyJr / iStock via Getty Images
17. Aroostook County, Maine
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 137 per 100,000 people (total: 93)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 9,922 per 100,000 people (total: 6,728)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 527
> Population: 67,809
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16. Fulton County, Pennsylvania
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 138 per 100,000 people (total: 20)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,481 per 100,000 people (total: 2,971)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 174
> Population: 14,506
15. Quay County, New Mexico
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 138 per 100,000 people (total: 12)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.6%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,268 per 100,000 people (total: 1,521)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 84
> Population: 8,326
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Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
14. Edgar County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 140 per 100,000 people (total: 24)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,803 per 100,000 people (total: 3,273)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 171
> Population: 17,407
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Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
13. Clay County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 142 per 100,000 people (total: 19)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 23,918 per 100,000 people (total: 3,178)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 150
> Population: 13,287
12. Jefferson County, Indiana
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 142 per 100,000 people (total: 46)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 19,975 per 100,000 people (total: 6,432)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 347
> Population: 32,201
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Source: BOB WESTON / iStock / Getty Images Plus
11. Harper County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 144 per 100,000 people (total: 8)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 4.6%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 21,452 per 100,000 people (total: 1,200)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 73
> Population: 5,594
10. De Baca County, New Mexico
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 145 per 100,000 people (total: 3)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 1.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 18,627 per 100,000 people (total: 380)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 17
> Population: 2,040
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9. Allen County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 149 per 100,000 people (total: 19)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 2.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,054 per 100,000 people (total: 2,518)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 147
> Population: 12,556
8.
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 151 per 100,000 people (total: 25)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.9%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 16,475 per 100,000 people (total: 2,702)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 179
> Population: 16,401
7. Wabaunsee County, Kansas
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 162 per 100,000 people (total: 11)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 16,824 per 100,000 people (total: 1,159)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 106
> Population: 6,889
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6. Tompkins County, New York
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 173 per 100,000 people (total: 177)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 22.5%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 10,055 per 100,000 people (total: 10,321)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 2,475
> Population: 102,642
5. Menifee County, Kentucky
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 174 per 100,000 people (total: 11)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.0%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 16,328 per 100,000 people (total: 1,052)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 90
> Population: 6,443
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4. Kittson County, Minnesota
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 179 per 100,000 people (total: 8)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 3.1%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 19,369 per 100,000 people (total: 835)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 51
> Population: 4,311
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Source: Public Domain / Wikimedia Commons
3. Pike County, Illinois
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 179 per 100,000 people (total: 28)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 5.7%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 21,018 per 100,000 people (total: 3,294)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 259
> Population: 15,672
Source: Esteban Martinena Guerrero / iStock via Getty Images
2. Wheeler County, Oregon
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 182 per 100,000 people (total: 3)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 6.2%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 9,753 per 100,000 people (total: 138)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 18
> Population: 1,415
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Source: BOB WESTON / iStock via Getty Images
1. Robertson County, Kentucky
> Avg. new cases per day, Dec 15 – Dec 21: 186 per 100,000 people (total: 4)
> Growth in cases using single-day counts: 6.8%
> Confirmed cases as of Dec 21: 20,725 per 100,000 people (total: 440)
> Total new cases on Dec 21: 32
> Population: 2.123
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