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Stock Market Live April 30th: US Economy Slows, S&P 500 (VOO) Falls
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Key Points
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Consumer spending is slowing and it pushed US GDP into negative territory in Q1.
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Earnings results continue to be mixed, with Booking Holdings beating expectations last night but Caterpillar missing this morning.
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Win Some, Lose Some
The S&P 500 closed the final trading day of April 2025 at 5,569, rising 0.15% to end the day, and posting a seventh straight “win.” The index-tracking Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, however, closed up only 0.05% at 509.74. For the month of April, however, both index and ETF lost money, marking markets’ third straight “down” month.
Can Senate Keep Trump Tariffs From Tanking the Economy
In late-breaking news, the U.S. Senate is poised to vote on a measure that will block implementation of President Trump’s 10% (and greater) reciprocal tariffs.
Democratic Senator Ron Wyden and Republican Rand Paul are co-sponsors. Winning additional Republican support will be crucial to the law’s passage, though, and even if it does pass, the President has promised to veto it, saying despite their effect on the economy, the tariffs are essential for national and economic security.
Apple Downgraded Ahead of Earnings
Apple is expected to report earnings tomorrow, and with perhaps 28 hours remaining before the news comes out, Wall Street is bracing for the worst. Barclays just cut its price target on the iPhone maker by 12%, to $173, and doubled down on its underweight rating. Although the analyst thinks Apple will “beat earnings” tomorrow, Barclays worries that H2 2025 performance “looks to be worse” as tariffs begin to bite, and iPhones get more expensive for American consumers.
Tuesday's Sell-off Gathers Steam
The S&P 500 is now down a full 1% as Tuesday’s sell-off gathers steam. Referring to the Q1 GDP decline that sparked today’s misfortunes, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro was quoted commenting “we really like where we’re at now.”
He may regret that remark given the market’s reaction. Still, not all the news is bad. March U.S. pending home sales rose surged ahead to 76.5 from 72.1 in February, and are now well off their all-time lows of 70.6 in January.
Stock markets look likely to open lower on Wednesday, and this time it might stick, interrupting a six-straight-day winning streak for the S&P 500 and its tracking index, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO).
Both the index and the ETF are trending towards a 0.9% decline in pre-market trading after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product fell at an annualized 0.3% pace in Q1 2025. That hasn’t happened since Q1 2022, so the news came as a surprise to economists who had predicted 0.4% GDP growth.
Consumer spending is also reported to have decelerated from 4% in Q4 2024 to 1.8% in Q1 2025.
Earnings
S&P 500 index component Booking Holdings (Nasdaq: BKNG) reported what it called a “good start to 2025” last night, with earnings per share of $24.81 beating consensus forecasts for $17.57, revenue rising to $4.8 billion (also ahead of expectations), and a forecast for 10% to 12% revenue growth in Q2.
Conversely this morning, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), also an index component, reported an earnings miss. Sales of $14.25 billion fell short of expectations, and profits, $4.25 per share, were a dime short of consensus expectations. Management forecast Q2 sales “similar” to what it did in Q2 2024 on lower sales prices, even before taking account of any tariffs impact.
Analyst Calls
In upgrades and downgrades news, DA Davidson upgraded component Airbnb (Nasdaq: ABNB) to buy, citing the company’s “continued penetration of online Lodging” reservations and calling the company the “category leader in alternative accommodations.”
Wolfe Research is upgrading component Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) to “peer perform” ahead of earnings next week, arguing the automaker is “relatively insulated from tariff risk given [its] US-centric manufacturing base.” Wolfe believes that “Large Auto Parts Tariff Relief” announced by the Trump Administration “could offer Ford a meaningful competitive advantage.”
Conversely, First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) got hit by downgrades to perform at Oppenheimer and to underweight at KeyBanc, citing an earnings miss and further “tariff and tax policy uncertainty.”
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