With the first half of 2025 in the history books, investors may be surprised to see precious metals on the move. A gold-and-silver rally appears to be underway, and these commodities can easily be bought and sold via exchange traded funds (ETFs).
There are multiple gold ETFs to cash in on higher gold prices. For simplicity’s sake, today we’ll focus on the popular SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which tracks gold price movements. Similarly, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) tracks the price moves of silver.
Some investors will prefer to own gold and silver bullions (bars, coins, etc.); others like the convenience of the GLD and SLV ETFs. Either way, a precious metals rally could enrich well-timed traders while also providing a safe haven during turbulent times.
Gold Loves Lingering Uncertainty
Checking in at the halfway mark of 2025, we can see how well gold and silver performed in H1. To start off, gold (represented by the GLD ETF) gained 25.9% during the year’s first six months.
Meanwhile, silver (represented by the SLV ETF) gained 24.14% in H1 of 2025.
In contrast, the S&P 500 (represented by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY)) only gained 4.65% during 2025’s first six months.
Suffice it to say, then, that precious metals generally outperformed large-cap stocks. What would account for this outperformance, though?
It’s fair to say that the main theme of H1 2025 was uncertainty. Due to many changes in tariff policy, large-cap stock investors were uncertain about how U.S. businesses would fare.
Consequently, investors flocked to gold and the GLD ETF as safe havens. They also bought silver and the SLV ETF, which are more affordable than their gold counterparts. It’s a typical pattern to see the silver price follow the gold price as traders think of one when they think of the other.
GLD and SLV were both up on the morning of July 1, suggesting a strong start to 2025’s second half. Again, the bullish catalyst was a lingering sense of uncertainty.
Reportedly, there has been ongoing friction between President Donald Trump and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk. Also, financial traders are concerned about Trump’s looming July 9 deadline to forge trade deals before imposing harsh tariffs.
The Dollar’s Dramatic Decline
As we’ve discovered, precious metal prices can soar when financial traders feel uncertain about the future. This isn’t the only positive catalyst for gold and silver, however.
If you’re going to invest in GLD and/or SLV, you’ll definitely want to monitor the price moves of the U.S. dollar. After all, the prices of commodities like gold and silver are often measured against the dollar. Moreover, commodities tend to perform well when government-issued currencies lose value.
Notably, the U.S. dollar (represented by the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA:UUP)) declined 8.63% during the first half of 2025.
That’s an unusually steep drop for the dollar, which is often regarded as the world’s number-one reserve currency. This phenomenon may reflect global concerns about the future of the U.S. economy and/or America’s ability to service its national debt.
In any case, there’s no denying that the dollar is on a downward trajectory and this is good news for holders of gold and silver. If the dollar continues to slip during the back half of 2025, it’s easy to imagine that GLD and SLV would stay on their upward trajectories.
What’s Next for Gold and Silver?
It’s difficult to predict the future course of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and the iShares Silver Trust. There’s no way to know whether the U.S. dollar will continue to lose value in the next six months.
Moreover, tariff tensions could last for a while. If the overall feeling of uncertainty persists, this would likely provide a tailwind for gold and silver.
Perhaps, instead of trying to guess what will happen in the near future, it’s wise to simply hedge your bets. Even though the outlook for next few months is unknown, investors don’t have to sell all of their stock holdings.
Instead, investors can own some large-cap stocks but also take moderately sized positions in GLD and SLV. This strategy would allow for a measure of portfolio diversification and de-risking.
In addition, holding some shares of GLD and SLV could unlock substantial profits if gold and silver continue to rally throughout the year. As we embark on the second half of the year, a balanced mix of stocks and precious-metal ETFs might just be your best bet for risk-reduced gains in 2025.
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