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Live Coverage: Will Seagate Technology (STX) Skyrocket After 4Q Earnings?

By Joel South · Updated Jul 29, 4:30pm ET · Published Jul 29, 3:30pm ET

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Reaction to Earnings

Post-Earnings Move: 🔻-7.95%

What Happened:

  • Beat every major metric: EPS $2.59 vs. $0.91 est, revenue $2.44B vs. $1.72B est, gross margin record 37.9%.

  • Guidance for Q1: $2.50B ± $150M in revenue, $2.30 ± $0.20 in EPS.

Why the Stock Dropped:

  • Whisper expectations were higher, especially after +60% YTD rally.

  • Q1 guidance implies EPS and revenue could decline sequentially, and no formal FY26 guide provided.

  • Fears around China export restrictions and sustainability of margins likely triggered profit-taking.

Tactical Take:

  • This is the kind of blowout quarter that gets faded if sentiment was too hot.

  • Long-term bulls may step in, but near-term performance now hinges on proving Q1 isn’t a margin peak.

  • HAMR adoption metrics will be key to watch next.

What Changed vs. Q3

  • Gross margin jumped from 28.3% in Q3 to 37.9% in Q4

  • EPS more than doubled QoQ (+$1.20 gain)

  • AI storage and Nearline HDD demand began translating into real volume/margin upside

  • Debt reduced by $684M for the year; balance sheet healthier entering FY26

Seagate stock plummets After Earnings

Seagate capped FY25 with a clear beat in Q4, crushing top- and bottom-line estimates as cloud and AI storage demand accelerated. Revenue grew 30% YoY to $2.44B vs. $1.72B est, and non-GAAP EPS hit $2.59 vs. $0.91 est, tripling YoY. Gross margin set a company record at 37.9%, underscoring Seagate’s volume leverage and cost efficiency.

Metric Actual Estimate Beat/Miss
Revenue $2.44B $1.72B ✅ Beat
Non-GAAP EPS $2.59 $0.91 ✅ Beat
GAAP EPS $2.24 — —
Gross Margin (non-GAAP) 37.9% ~29–30% est ✅ Beat
Free Cash Flow $425M — ↑ Strong

While Q4 revenue came in at $2.44B, Seagate’s Q1 guide is $2.50B ± $150M — which implies a possible sequential decline at the low end ($2.35B). The EPS guide of $2.30 ± $0.20 is also below the Q4 actual of $2.59.

Forward guidance is having investors shy away from the stock after earnings.

Seagate earnings on deck as shares move higher today

Seagate stock is trending up (+1.57%)as the trading day wraps up and 4Q earnings coming shortly. Stay on this page as we send live updates of earnings how the stock trends after-hours.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Seagate Technology (Nasdaq: STX | STX Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q4 2025 earnings after the close tonight, marking a potential inflection point after nearly two years of revenue contraction. Shares are up ~40% YTD as optimism around AI storage, HDD capacity ramps, and cost controls builds. This print will be a credibility check on that thesis, especially with hyperscaler spending trends and China recovery still volatile.

Consensus Estimates:

– Revenue: $1.72 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $0.91

– FY 2025 Revenue: $6.38 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $2.50

These figures reflect a potential YoY return to top-line growth (+4.5%) in Q4, with FY25 still down ~5% vs. FY24 — but expectations are high for a sharper rebound in FY26.

Key Areas to Watch Tonight

  •  Cloud Storage & AI Workload Demand- AI hyperscale training requires high-capacity storage at the edge and core.
    Seagate is leaning into 24TB+ HDD demand for AI pipelines. Investors want proof of accelerating volume from U.S. hyperscalers and indications that new product adoption is broadening.
  • Nearline HDD Recovery Trajectory –Nearline drives make up >50% of revenue and drive gross margin leverage.
    After three weak quarters, investors expect sequential growth in exabyte shipments and ASP stabilization. Management commentary on inventory normalization and hyperscaler forecasts will be critical.
  • Cost Discipline and Gross Margin Rebuild-  Seagate’s earnings power is highly sensitive to gross margin swings.
    Last quarter’s GM was 28.3%. Consensus expects a 100–150bps lift — investors will look for signs that volume leverage is driving margin expansion rather than temporary mix shifts.
  • China Demand Stabilization- China’s storage and surveillance end markets remain volatile post-COVID.
    Seagate previously flagged uneven demand recovery. Look for updated regional performance and any FX or export control commentary.

What To Track

KPI Q3 FY25 Q4 FY25E Trend
Exabytes Shipped 94.3 EB 100–110 EB ↑ est.
Gross Margin 28.3% 29–30% ↑ slight
Nearline HDD % of Rev ~52% est. ~55% est. ↑

What Changed Since Q2

  • Margins improved sequentially, driven by cost control and product mix.

  • Nearline HDD shipments bottomed; volumes guided higher in Q4.

  • Capex stayed lean despite capacity ramp; free cash flow inflected positive.

  • FY26 revenue expected to accelerate >15% — execution is now key.

How Seagate Stock Performed After Recent Earnings

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 14-Day Move
Q3 FY25 +5.3% +4.6% +7.8% +9.1%
Q2 FY25 +3.0% +2.2% +3.9% +4.4%
Q1 FY25 -2.4% -1.7% -3.2% -2.8%
Q4 FY24 +4.1% +1.3% +2.5% +3.1%

Seagate has averaged a +2.8% stock move 7 days post-earnings over the past four quarters.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Joel South

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

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