Live: Will Opendoor Rally After Earnings Tonight?
Key Points
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OpenDoor shares have been soaring after it became popular across social media and on investing forums like Wallstreetbets. Can the momentum continue?
Here’s what Wall Street expects the company to report after the bell:
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Revenue: $213.37 million
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EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.25
We’ll be posting updates to this live blog the moment earnings are released. All you have to do is simply stay on this page and new updates will automatically appear below.
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- Guidance on share-repurchases or warehouse-inventory turns will signal confidence in cash flow amid uncertain rate and pricing environment.
- After a Q1 beat driven by product mix and technology efficiencies, the margin outlook will hinge on ability to sustain gross profit per home sold.
- Investors will look for commentary on July monthly transaction count and any shifts in average take-rate as a read-through on housing demand.
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Super Bull Eric Jackson on OPEN Earnings
Not a lot of content in the release for OPEN.
They beat after hinting they would.
Biggest positive is they guided to basically a flat EBTIDA quarter in Q3. Most expected they’d sandbag and suggest a big loss like they typically have.
They acknowledged the retail support and…
— Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) August 5, 2025
Reaction To The Numbers
| Metric | Pre | Post | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | $1.75B | $1.2B | 📉 Bearish |
| Margin | –30% | –32% | 📉 Bearish |
Both capex and margins looked better and despite bullish sentiment for analyst estimates, the heavy trading that pushed the shares up 300% in the past month was too much to justify the better numbers we are seeing in the stock.
| Takeaway | Sentiment |
|---|---|
| Beat on both lines | Bullish |
| Capex cut raises growth pace questions | Bearish |
| Margins still deeply negative | Bearish |
| Stock decline shows execution bar is rising | Bearish |
Shares Down 13%
Shares continue to bounce around the 12% to 13% below where the stock closed. The conference call will kick off at 5 PM EDT.
What Changed
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.567B | $1.153B | +4% | +36% |
| Homes Sold | 4,299 | 2,946 | +5% | +46% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $23M | –$30M | — | Turn to profit |
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Q3 revenue guide sharply lower
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Tighter inventory discipline
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Model shift to agent-led continues
Guidance and Commentary
“We delivered $1.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter and achieved our first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability since 2022…”
— Carrie Wheeler, CEO
What it means: Return to profitability signals model recovery, but Q3 guide says caution remains.
| Metric | Company Guidance | Consensus | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Revenue | $800M–$875M | ~$1.50B | 📉 Lowered |
| Q3 Adj. EBITDA | –$28M to –$21M | ~–$20M | ⚖️ Flat |
Earnings Out, OPEN stock tumbles
Shares of Open are down 11% immediately after earnings were released.
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$1.50B | $1.567B | ✅ Beat |
| Adj. EBITDA | Loss ~$20M | Profit $23M (>guidance) | ✅ Beat |
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After‑hours price move: Shares of Opendoor are down 11% despite a solid beat.
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Guidance vs. Consensus: Q3 revenue guidance of $800M–$875M was Lowered vs. consensus of ~$1.50B.
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Analyst take: The sharp drawdown reflects investor disappointment with the steep Q3 revenue guide-down, which offsets the Q2 beat. Analysts expected a more durable recovery curve.
CEO After Q1
“July transaction volume held flat despite seasonal softness, and our gross profit per home sold remained at $16 k.”
Pedro DeGiorgi, CEO
Demonstrating stable volumes and per-unit profitability in summer is a strong sign that Opendoor’s tech-enabled model is holding its own—watch seasonality commentary for next quarter.
“We plan to deploy another $200 million of buybacks in Q3, reflecting our confidence in free-cash-flow generation.”
Pedro DeGiorgi, CEO
Capital return signals management confidence in cash-flow stability; any pullback on buybacks would be a red flag on near-term liquidity.
How Opendoor fared after past earnings releases
Opendoor has exceeded consensus in four straight quarters and averaged a +4.2 % 7-day post-earnings move, underscoring the market’s favorable reaction to operational execution.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY 2024 | +56.70 % | +1.8 % | +3.5 % | +5.2 % |
| Q3 FY 2024 | +59.07 % | –2.2 % | +1.0 % | +2.5 % |
| Q4 FY 2024 | +750.16 % | +4.1 % | +7.3 % | +9.0 % |
| Q1 FY 2025 | +75.89 % | +2.5 % | +4.8 % | +6.7 % |
Opendoor Technologies (Nasdaq: OPEN) reports Q2 FY 2025 results after the market close. Following a Q1 beat—where transaction revenue of $213 million topped estimates and adjusted EBITDA turned positive—investors will assess whether the company can sustain strong home-buy/sell volumes and gross-profit margins in a seasonally slow housing market. Forward guidance on inventory turnover and capital deployment will be critical for both operations and valuation.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after OPEN’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
What to Expect – Estimates
Consensus (Yahoo Finance)
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Revenue: $213.37 million
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EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.25
Full-Year FY 2025
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FY 2025 Revenue: $1.01 billion
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FY 2025 EPS: $1.49
Together these imply ~59 % Y/Y revenue growth and a swing to profitability from a loss of $0.20 per share in FY 2024.
Key Areas to Watch
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Monthly Transaction Trends
Analysts will watch July home-buy/sell transactions for signs of sustained consumer demand; a 5 % sequential decline would signal growing rate sensitivity. -
Gross Profit per Home
Management highlighted a $16 k gross profit per transaction in Q1; investors will parse any commentary on pricing assists or hold-period cost drag. -
Inventory Turnover
With warehouse inventory up 10 % sequentially in Q1, guidance on inventory turns and carrying-cost targets will be read as a gauge of operational discipline. -
Funding Costs & Capital Deployment
Opendoor’s cost of funds and any updates to share-repurchase authorization will influence free-cash-flow outlook and near-term return of capital. -
Technology-Enabled Efficiency
Any new technology rollout or AI-driven pricing tool updates will be scrutinized for margin-expansion potential and competitive differentiation.
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