Live update #8

My Take

Figma proved it can deliver profitable growth and expand its product footprint aggressively. But with revenue just under consensus and margins squeezed, the debut quarter didn’t clear the high bar set by its IPO hype. The story now hinges on whether AI products (Make, Buzz) and enterprise seat expansion can sustain momentum as lock-up expirations loom.

  • Consensus Reset: Street will likely nudge FY25 numbers up slightly given raised guidance.

  • Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish — execution was solid, but valuation + technical lock-up pressure outweigh the fundamentals tonight.

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Joel South

You can tune into the conference call at 5 pm est here.

Joel South
  • Early release: 25% of employee-held shares eligible Sept 5, 2025.
  • Extended lock-up: 54% of shares locked through Aug 2026, with staged releases in 2026

Having shares locked up into next year creates near term pressure.

Joel South
KPI Actual YoY Why investors care
Revenue $249.6M +41% High growth, but just shy of consensus
Non-GAAP Op Margin 5% vs. 3% last yr Signs of leverage, but thin vs. SaaS peers
Free Cash Flow $60.6M swing from –$179.8M Strong liquidity proof point
Net Dollar Retention 129% vs. 130%+ prior Stickiness in enterprise expansion
$100k+ Customers 1,119 +YoY Large enterprise traction
Cash & Equivalents $1.6B — Ample runway
Joel South

Headline Numbers

  • Revenue: $249.6M (+41% YoY)
  • Non-GAAP Operating Income: $11.5M (5% margin)
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin: 24%
  • Cash & Equivalents: $1.6B on balance sheet
  • Net Dollar Retention: 129% among >$10k ARR customers — still healthy, though trending down from prior highs.
  • Customer Base:
  • 11,906 customers >$10k ARR (up from 9,071 YoY)
  • 1,119 customers >$100k ARR (up from 787 YoY)
  • Platform Expansion: Over 80% of customers now use 2+ products, two-thirds use 3+
Joel South

Guidance was stronger than consensus, but with FIG already trading at ~200× earnings, the Street demanded more upside. But more color in the conference call could get the stock moving higher.

Guide (Period) Company Guide Street Direction
Q3 2025 Rev $263M–$265M $262M 📈 Raised
FY25 Rev $1.021B–$1.025B $1.01B 📈 Raised
FY25 Non-GAAP Op Income $88M–$98M ~$85M est. 📈 Raised
Joel South

“We delivered record revenue in Q2 as we continued to innovate with the launch of four new products. Looking ahead, we’re excited to keep building for our customers and help define the next era of digital products and experiences.” — Dylan Field, CEO

Management emphasized innovation and product expansion (Figma Make, Draw, Sites, Buzz) as drivers of platform stickiness, but avoided directly addressing valuation pressures or lock-up overhang.

Joel South

Earnings are in and the stock immediately dropped 6.9%.

Metric Actual Consensus Beat/Miss
Revenue $249.6M $250.0M ❌
Non-GAAP Net Income $19.8M ~$22M implied ❌
GAAP Net Income $28.2M N/A —
Net Dollar Retention 129% N/A —

Despite delivering 41% YoY growth and staying profitable on a non-GAAP basis, the tiny revenue miss and modest margins weren’t enough to satisfy lofty expectations. Shares are selling off as investors weigh the debut hype against execution and upcoming lock-up expirations.

Joel South

BofA Securities initiated coverage of Figma (FIG) with a Neutral rating and an $85 price target, citing its strong positioning in the $36 billion digital design industry. They highlighted Figma’s 13 million monthly active users, 450,000 paid customers, expansive product suite (whiteboarding, development, website, vector, social), strong collaboration features, and nascent generative AI tools as key competitive advantages. However, they cautioned that the stock already trades above fair value, suggesting limited near-term upside.

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