Coverage ended 6 updates · Last at 4:36pm ET

Live: Will C3.ai Earnings Come In Higher Than Earlier Estimates?

By Joel South · Updated Sep 3, 4:36pm ET · Published Sep 3, 3:00pm ET

Live Updates

Newest first

Final Reaction

Period Pre EPS Post EPS Pre Rev Post Rev
FY26 –$0.60 ↓ $420M ↓
FY27 TBD TBD TBD TBD

C3.ai still owns a differentiated agentic/GenAI platform and deep partner ecosystem, but execution risk and credibility gap are now front and center. Until new leadership proves stabilization, the stock will trade under pressure.

  • Sentiment: Bearish — Street models will come down sharply.
  • No near-term catalyst until Q2 numbers prove stabilization.
  • With Siebel stepping back, all eyes on Ehikian’s first moves and partner-led monetization.

 

What Changed This Quarter

  • Guidance pulled after massive revenue miss.
  • CEO transition: Stephen Ehikian appointed; Siebel to Executive Chairman.
  • Sales org overhaul with new leadership across commercial, federal, EMEA.
  • Margins collapsed (non-GAAP GM fell to 52% from 70% YoY).
  • Cash burn accelerated: –$34M FCF vs. +$7M last yea

Key Operating Highlights

KPI Actual YoY Why Investors Care
Revenue $70.3M –19% Execution failure after reorg
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 52% down from 70% Heavy mix + services drag
Deals Closed 46 N/A 28 were initial production deployments — pipeline still alive
Partner Deals 40 +54% pipeline YoY Microsoft contributed 24 agreements
Federal Sector 12 deals (28% bookings) N/A Defense still a key support
Cash $711.9M stable Runway remains strong

Management Commentary and Guidance

The good news is we have completely restructured the sales and services organization… The bad news is that financial performance in Q1 was completely unacceptable.” — Tom Siebel, Founder & Executive Chairman

Siebel candidly admitted execution failures tied to sales disruption and his health issues. That honesty reinforces credibility, but highlights how deep the reset is. However, this was already clear last month when the stock cratered after prelim numbers were released.

Investors were hoping for a more rosy picture but that is not what we are seeing.

Guide (Period) Company Guide Prior Street Direction
Q2 FY26 Rev $72–80M N/A ~$100M+ pre-reset ⚖️ Flat vs. prelim
FY26 Guide Withdrawn $420M (prelim) $420M consensus 📉 Lowered

Earnings Are In and Stock Tumbles 12.7%

First Take

  • After-hours move: –12.8%

  • Beat/Miss vs. Consensus

Metric Actual Consensus Beat/Miss
Revenue $70.3M $93.9M ❌
Subscription Revenue $60.3M N/A —
GAAP EPS –$0.86 –$0.21 ❌
Non-GAAP EPS –$0.37 –$0.21 ❌
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 52% ~65% Street implied ❌
Cash Balance $711.9M N/A —

This was a trainwreck vs. consensus. Revenue missed by 25%, losses widened, and FY26 guidance was withdrawn — overshadowing new CEO news and product momentum.

How C3.ai performed after recent earnings

C3.ai has delivered four straight EPS beats but not above the Street’s expectations, post-earnings trading has leaned negative, with an average 7-day move of –5.9%.

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 14-Day Move
Q1 2025 +62.61% +0.85% +10.23% +14.39%
Q2 2025 +62.93% –8.51% –15.05% –17.49%
Q3 2025 +52.00% –1.80% –12.23% –4.94%
Q4 2025 +20.39% –4.35% –6.98% –13.09%

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

C3.ai (NYSE: AI | AI Price Prediction) will confirm fiscal first-quarter results after the bell. The company pre-announced preliminary numbers last month, guiding revenue to just over $70 million, which was 33% below the midpoint of the prior guidance of $100 to $109 million. The reaction was brutal: shares plunged 25% the following trading day. 

Found and CEO Tom Siebel called out sales reorganizations and his own health as reasons for the lower figures. Any positive surprises on tonight’s earnings confirmation should move the stock higher. 

Consensus estimates:

  • Revenue: $93.88M
  • EPS (GAAP): –$0.21
  • FY2026 Revenue: $420.0M
  • FY2026 EPS: –$0.60

Pre-announced range (Aug 8):

  • Revenue: $70.2M–$70.4M
  • GAAP loss from operations: $(124.7M)–$(124.9M)
  • Non-GAAP loss from operations: $(57.7M)–$(57.9M)
  • Cash & equivalents: $711.9M

Street consensus hadn’t fully reset to the company’s lower preliminary guidance, creating a gap investors will reconcile tonight.

Key Areas to Watch

  1. Partner Ecosystem Leverage – Q4 saw Microsoft, AWS, and Google Cloud deepen sales collaboration. Over 600 joint accounts are in play with Microsoft alone. Investors will look for updates on execution at scale.

  2. Agentic & Generative AI Traction – Management claims over 100 Agentic AI deployments and growing ARR (~$60M). Any color on monetization acceleration could be a catalyst.

  3. Federal Contracts & Defense Work – Renewed U.S. Air Force and Defense Logistics Agency deals underpin visibility. Watch for new task orders or expansions.

  4. Diversification Beyond Oil & Gas – Manufacturing, life sciences, and state/local governments grew sharply in FY2025. Sustaining momentum outside Baker Hughes remains key.

  5. Profitability Timeline – Management has reiterated expectations for free cash flow positivity by FY2026 Q4 and non-GAAP profitability in FY2027. Confirmation will be closely scrutinized.

 

 

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Joel South

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.

All articles →