Extreme optimism about Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) founder Elon Musk’s relationship with President Trump pushed Tesla’s stock to $400 at the start of 2025. The breakup of that relationship and a sharp drop in the overall market sent the stock to $217 in March. It has recovered, and then some, from the start of the year, and is now up 8% year to date. The S&P 500 is 15% higher in the same period. Additionally, the run has made Tesla the 10th-most-valuable publicly traded company in the world, with a market cap of $1.45 trillion.
Because of the breakup with the president and overall sales figures, the recovery is particularly unexpected. Tesla’s sales in most EU nations are down double-digit percentages this year. Depending on the analysis, Tesla’s market share in China, by far the largest electric vehicle (EV) market share in the world, has dropped to number five. Its U.S. market share fell to 46% through the first three quarters of the year. A decade ago, the number was closer to 80%.
Recent data show that Tesla’s car sales decline may have bottomed and that it may be in the early stages of a recovery. Tesla’s third-quarter production and deliveries were higher than expected. Production hit 447,450, and deliveries totaled 497,099. Those figures were both an annual increase of about 7%.
The third-quarter results were not good when viewed through the lens of the end of the U.S. EV tax credit of $7,500. The expectation is that the lack of the incentive now will cause an EV sales slump in the current quarter.
Tesla’s share price reflects Musk’s pitch for its future: Tesla is not a car company anymore but an artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics company. Its AI strength will help it build the first truly self-driving cars, ones in which passengers can forget the road and what is on it. However, this field is becoming crowded, particularly in China.
A look at Tesla’s robotics business shows it is in early stages. Its Optimus has only basic robot functions. However, Musk says eventually it will be the world’s most advanced robot.
Tesla’s stock has collapsed and risen before. In each case, it was because of Musk’s magic.
Tesla Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030
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