QuantumScape (Nasdaq:QS | QS Price Prediction) enters tonight’s earnings as a pre-revenue platform transitioning from lab to a scalable ready product. Management tightened CapEx, expanded the Volkswagen PowerCo collaboration with up to $131 million of milestone inflows, signed a second global OEM JDA, and baselined the Cobra separator to unlock B1 shipments. The question now isn’t if QS can attract blue-chip partners and how quickly those partnerships translate into validated product, factory-ready processes, and royalty pathways.
The stock is trading 10% lower today with earnings on deck after the market closes. But year-to-date, the stock is still up 150%.
What to Expect
- Q3 FY2025 EPS (GAAP): –$0.20 (5 analysts; range –$0.22 to –$0.17)
- Q4 FY2025 EPS (GAAP): –$0.19
- FY2025 EPS: –$0.78; FY2026 EPS: –$0.74
- FY2026 Revenue (first modeled): ~$5.95M–$10M (QS remains pre-revenue near-term)
As a licensing-first, pre-revenue setup, cash runway, CapEx cadence, and customer cash inflows matter more than penny EPS beats. Management guided FY CapEx to $45–$65M and posted Q2 GAAP net loss of $114.7M with $797.5M liquidity.
Key Areas to Watch Tonight
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Commercialization Milestones & Cobra Throughput- Investor focus is on Cobra’s step-change vs. Raptor and whether B1 shipments stay on-track in 2025. Management called Cobra “transformative,” citing 25× productivity vs. Raptor and over 200× vs. early 2023 processes. Any color on yields, reliability, or UN 38.3 steps will be stock-moving.
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PowerCo Workstreams, Cash Inflows, and Accounting- The expanded deal targets up to $131M over two years; QS expects to invoice over $10M in Q3 tied to joint development. Update on invoicing timing, OpEx/EBIT impact, and whether inflows remain non-revenue accounting will be closely parsed.
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Second OEM JDA: Scope and Roadmap- Management framed the new JDA as following the PowerCo “playbook”: tailor QS tech to customer specs, industrialize with a joint team, then license/royalty ramp. Investors want milestones, resourcing/bandwidth comfort, and any hints on application/form factor.
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CapEx, Runway, and Optionality- With runway extended into 2029, updated CapEx phasing and potential non-dilutive customer cash are central to sustaining the commercialization sprint without equity taps.
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Ecosystem Build-Out (Murata, Japan footprint)- Progress with Murata on ceramics scaling and Japan market engagement helps de-risk Cobra manufacturing and broadens OEM access. Look for integration timelines and scope.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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