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As already mentioned, investors were on the lookout for a September inflation report today, and an annualized rate of 3.1%. The good news is that the news has arrived, and it’s a better than expected 3% inflation rate for September, up just 0.3% for the month instead of the expected 0.4%.
Core inflation likewise came in at 3% annualized, up 0.2% for the month. Food and energy prices gained faster than the rest of the economy, but not enough to match higher forecast inflation.
The Voo is still up 0.8%.
Graphite manufacturing company GrafTech International (NYSE: EAF) just reported miserable earnings for its fiscal Q3 2025. The company was expected to lose money, but only 12 cents per share. Actual losses were $1.03 per share, much worse than expected, despite revenue of $144 million being better than expected.
Shares are down 4.1%, while the Voo gains 0.8%.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
All eyes are on the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, which is expected to finally report consumer price index (i.e. inflation) data for September today. (The original scheduled date for this data release was October 15, but it’s been delayed by the ongoing government shutdown).
Forecasts are for another 0.4% inflation increase, the same as last month, which would work out to an annualized inflation rate of 3.1% (up 0.2% from where we were in August). Core inflation, which excludes changes in the volatile categories of food and energy prices, is expected to climb 0.3%, also resulting in a 3.1% annual rate for core inflation.
In the absence of related government data that might disprove the assumptions, investors are betting right now the actual numbers will fall close to expectations, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is up 0.4% premarket on that assumption.
Turning now to data we do have access to, regardless of the shutdown, earnings season is now in full swing, with multiple big companies reporting today.
Major defense contractor and S&P 500 component company General Dynamics (NYSE: GD | GD Price Prediction) beat earnings by 19 cents this morning, reporting a Q3 profit of $3.88 per share. Revenue of $12.9 billion likewise exceeded expectations for $12.5 billion.
Industrials company and S&P 500 component Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) had a $2.81 per share profit in Q3, nine cents better than expected, although revenue came up just short of expectations at $4.1 billion. ITW also guided to between $10.40 and $10.50 per share for full year profit, a nickel ahead of consensus.
Consumer goods giant and S&P 500 component Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) also beat earnings by nine cents, reporting fiscal Q1 profit of $1.99 per share and $22.4 billion in revenue, eking out a win over the $22.2 billion forecast. And P&G forecast it will beat earnings by about a penny this year, predicting full year earnings per share will range from $6.83 to $7.09.
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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