Rivian’s Current Technicals

The Rivian call is still ongoing and there’s been little movement during it, with shares sitting up 17% after-hours.

Most of Wall Street’s questions have focused on when the R2 will begin scaling up. There was quite a bit of technical difficulties, which made following the call a little difficult.

One important note is that Rivian will be releasing significantly more details around the R2 on March 12th. If you’re a Rivian investor, make sure you’ve got that date circled.

Rivian shares are up more than 14% after-hours, but the company’s conference call could still change sentiment. It begins at 5 p.m. ET and you can register to listen here.

We’ll be on the call and will post updates if anything material is said. The best way to make sure you don’t miss anything: leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. 

Here’s what Rivian had to say about the R2 in its release:

“Progress on the manufacturing launch of R2 remains on track with the first customer deliveries expected in the second quarter of 2026. In mid-January, Rivian marked a key step with the completion of its first R2 manufacturing validation builds using production tools and processes at its plant in Normal, Illinois. R2’s launch variant will be a well-equipped Dual-Motor AWD Vehicle. The company expects to provide additional product and line-up details on March 12.”

Here’s more details on Rivian’s guidance:

Rivian shares are continuing to rally after-hours, now up about 12.5%.

Tonight’s Q4 earnings call will test whether Rivian can sustain momentum toward profitability while proving the R2 launch remains on track. Analysts will likely press management on:

Top Questions Expected

• R2 Production Timeline: With first-half 2026 production targeted, investors need confirmation on equipment installation and whether supply chain issues could delay launch
• Path to Positive Cash Flow: After burning $526 million in Q2, when does management project sustainable positive free cash flow?
• Gross Margin Trajectory: Can Rivian maintain the improvement seen in Q1’s $206 million gross profit?
• Volkswagen Partnership Progress: Updates on the $5.8 billion joint venture and milestone achievements

Red flags to watch: Any hedging on R2 timing, increased capex guidance, or weakening gross margins.

The bottom line is that Rivian’s strong vehicle guidance points to R2 being on track, so it should be an optimstic call. 

More good news for Rivian investors – guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries in 2026 beats estimates that were closer to 63,000.

Rivian’s earnings were just released and here are the most need-to-know figures:

• EPS:$-.54
• Revenue: $1.29 billion

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:

• EPS: -$.67
• Revenue: $1.263 billion

Shares have immediately spiked 4% after the release. 

We expect Rivian earnings to drop shortly after the closing bell at 4 p.m. ET today, so investors shouldn’t have to wait long to see Wall Street’s reaction.

As a reminder, we’ll begin posting news and analysis the moment Rivian’s earnings drop. To receive them, simply stay on this page and new updates will post automatically. 

Polymarket has odds up on Rivian’s earnings, and they imply a 64% chance to beat earnings tonight.

However, it should be noted that Polymarket is using an ($.80) number for Rivian’s earnings while most data providers list Wall Street estimates at closer to ($.67).

Overall, Wall Street expects 2025 revenue of $5.36 billion against a larger target of $6.796 billion in 2026.

That’s why management commentary will be so critical tonight, expectations are very high for next year with the launch of the R2.