Microsoft’s $9.7 Billion Contract Hasn’t Saved This Struggling Miner ETF Yet

The Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (NASDAQ:WGMI) has delivered 86% returns over the past year, but recent volatility tells a more complicated story. Bitcoin’s sharp decline from $94,383 on January 2 has pressured mining economics across the board, with WGMI down 12.4% over the just past month. The fund’s concentrated exposure to Bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI infrastructure creates both opportunity and risk as the sector navigates this transition.

Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory Determines Everything

Bitcoin’s correction from its October 2025 peak has created a challenging environment for miners. The cryptocurrency now trades 28% below where it started the year, creating significant margin pressure for mining operations. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty, with traders pricing in only a 41% probability Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by year end.

Despite this challenging price environment, some miners demonstrate operational resilience. Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), which represents 4.8% of the fund, recently beat earnings estimates with revenue of $180.2 million, though the stock trades 10% below month-ago levels. Investors should track Bitcoin’s weekly price action for signs of sustained recovery or further deterioration.

The AI Infrastructure Pivot Carries Execution Risk

WGMI’s top holding, Iren Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN), represents 24% of the fund and exemplifies the sector’s strategic shift toward AI infrastructure. The company secured a $9.7 billion Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) contract and targets $3.4 billion in AI Cloud annual recurring revenue by end of 2026. However, management emphasizes 24 to 30 month payback periods for GPU investments, signaling a measured approach to capital deployment rather than aggressive expansion.

The execution challenges become clearer with second-largest holding Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR), which represents 18.3% of the fund. While the company secured a $5.5 billion Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) AWS lease, it missed revenue estimates and carries a negative 34.2% profit margin. Heavy insider selling throughout December 2025 and January 2026 signals management’s uncertainty about near-term prospects.

Watch quarterly updates from Iren and Cipher for evidence their AI contracts translate into actual revenue and improved margins, not just press releases.