Just a few years ago, electric vehicles (EVs) were a red-hot topic on Wall Street. It felt like the growth trajectory of solid-state lithium-metal EV battery maker QuantumScape (NASDAQ:QS) would continue unabated. Those were exciting times, but the outlook isn’t quite as optimistic in 2026.
Previously, the debate centered around whether QS stock will get back to $15. Today, it’s unclear whether the stock will get back to $10. It could happen this year, but no one can make any guarantees.
With petroleum prices staying fairly low in 2026, the demand for EVs might not be as robust as some commentators had anticipated. That’s problematic for QuantumScape, but let’s not jump to any conclusions yet. An in-depth analysis is needed to help us determine whether QuantumScape will reach $10 this year, so let’s start with a stock chart to get some perspective.
QS Stock Sizzles and Fizzles
Whether QS stock is a winner or a sinner depends, by and large, on our time frame. Pulling back the chart to five years of historic price action, it’s evident that QuantumScape’s loyal shareholders have had a rough ride.
This may be a hard pill to swallow, but QuantumScape stock is down 86% over the past five years. If there’s any silver lining to this, it’s that the stock is up 61% over the past 12 months.
That’s all well and good, but it appears that the sellers are back in control as QS stock was recently halved from $19 to $8. Apparently, the sizzle phase quickly gave way to the fizzle phase.
It’s difficult to know whether half-price QuantumScape stock can reasonably be called a bargain. After all, QuantumScape has no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio since the company isn’t profitable. This muddies the picture, and we have to remember that a low share price doesn’t always equate to a good value.
Since QS stock is so volatile, maybe a wild price swing will bring it back to $10 before the year is finished. That’s entirely possible, but investors are buying a piece of a company, not just a number on a screen. Hence, we shouldn’t just rely on luck and volatility; now is the time to be sensible and carefully analyze QuantumScape’s operational and financial health.
QuantumScape’s Operational Ambitons
From an operational standpoint, it looks like QuantumScape is firing on all cylinders. For example, the company recently inaugurated its latest lineup of EV battery technology materials and processes, known as Eagle Line.
At the heart of Eagle Line is QuantumScape’s “Cobra” production process, which will hopefully enable the company to rapidly scale up its output. With the assistance of the “Cobra” process, the Eagle Line is anticipated to help “support customer sampling and testing” of QuantumScape’s battery cells and facilitate “technology demonstrations” and “product integration efforts.”
Furthermore, QuantumScape’s management seemingly expects to expand the use cases of its products and processes beyond EV batteries. “From data center and robotics to aviation and defense,” QuantumScape’s management claims, “we see a rapidly expanding landscape of opportunities for our technology platform to create and capture value for our shareholders.”
Bear in mind, QuantumScape’s ambitions aren’t assurances of success in 2026 and beyond. Production scale-ups are costly and involve risks, and the demand for QuantumScape’s non-EV products and processes might not be as robust as anticipated.
Bleeding Money Again
Anyone who’s been monitoring QuantumScape’s fundamentals for a while shouldn’t be too surprised to discover that the company bled money in 2025. At this point, it’s a pattern, not just an isolated event.
Here’s the multi-year bottom-line breakdown so you can judge for yourself. As it turns out, QuantumScape incurred net losses of $445.079 million in 2023, $477.942 million in 2024, and $435.05 million in 2025.
For what it’s worth, QuantumScape’s management pointed out that the company ended 2025 with $970.8 million in liquidity. It’s problematic, though, that QuantumScape’s year-end liquidity would only cover around two years’ worth of net losses.
QuantumScape’s financials aren’t as simple as that, to be sure, but these are alarming figures nonetheless. In any case, QuantumScape guided for a full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss between $250 million and $275 million “as we work toward our goals while continuing to drive greater operational efficiency across the company.”
So again, QuantumScape’s operational strides may be promising and commendable, but prudent investors shouldn’t overlook the company’s financial pitfalls. Through that lens, we can conclude that QS stock has a decent chance of wobbling its way to $10 in 2026, but the outlook isn’t great and any QuantumScape share position should be moderately sized.
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