Eversource Takes a Hit as Regulators Reset ROE and Trigger Refund Risk

Eversource Energy (NYSE:ES | ES Price Prediction) has pulled back sharply in recent weeks, falling 11.51% over the past month to $67.44, even as the stock holds a 11.84% gain over the past year. Shares sit well below their 52-week high of $76.41, and the Street consensus target of $74.92 reflects a cautious but moderately constructive view.

Into that backdrop, Bank of America analyst Ross Fowler trimmed his price target to $73 from $82 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing headwinds from a new FERC ruling. That $73 target still implies roughly 7% upside from current levels. But can ES realistically reach $73 by the end of 2026?

Ross Fowler’s $73 ES Prediction

Fowler revised his FY26-28 EPS estimates to reflect the full 100 basis point base ROE drag in 2026 from Opinion No. 594, which resets the New England Transmission Owners base ROE to 9.57% and creates two refund obligations. Despite that compression, Fowler kept his Buy rating, signaling confidence that Eversource’s regulated growth platform and capital deployment can absorb the headwind. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.33%, a 9.57% allowed ROE leaves a narrower-than-ideal spread, but the utility’s scale and rate base trajectory support the thesis.

Key Drivers of ES Stock Performance

1. Rate Base Expansion: Eversource’s five-year capital plan totals $26.5 billion through 2026-2030, with rate base projected to grow from $30.6 billion to $49.3 billion by 2030. For retirement investors, that compounding asset base drives predictable, regulated earnings growth for years ahead.
2. Dividend Growth Streak: The quarterly dividend has risen to $0.7875 per share in 2026, up from $0.7525 throughout 2025, continuing a multi-decade growth streak. At current prices, the stock yields approximately 4.49%, providing meaningful income for retirement portfolios.
3. Pure-Play Regulated Utility: With the Aquarion Water sale complete and offshore wind exits behind it, Eversource is now a pure-play regulated utility. Management guided for 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth through 2030, targeting the upper half of that range by 2028, offering the kind of steady compounding that anchors retirement accounts.

What Will It Take for ES to Reach $73?

At 375.5 million shares outstanding and a $73 target, reaching that level implies a market cap of roughly $27.4 billion. The key conditions include: delivering on 2026 EPS guidance of $4.80 to $4.95; resolving the two FERC refund obligations without material earnings erosion beyond current estimates; and continued constructive regulatory outcomes in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Goldman Sachs maintains a more bullish Buy rating with an $80 target, suggesting the upside case is credible if regulatory friction clears.

The primary risk is that the FERC Opinion No. 594 refund obligations prove larger than modeled, compounding pressure from $980 million in Connecticut storm costs still under prudency review. Even so, Eversource’s combination of a 4.5% dividend yield, a $26.5 billion capital deployment runway, and a pure-play regulated structure makes BofA’s $73 target a credible destination for patient retirement investors.