Stocks opened in a holding pattern, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) heading into the trading session fractionally lower after rising to all-time highs last week. Three forces pull in opposite directions: the heaviest tech earnings week of the quarter, a fresh jump in oil after Iran peace talks stalled, and a Federal Reserve meeting within the same five trading days. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) enters that gauntlet near record territory after a 8.7% rally over the past month. With the recent rally, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up about 5% YTD and Wall Street analysts are turning increasingly bullish on year-end estimates.
A big story of the day is Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM). OpenAI is teaming up with Qualcomm and MediaTek to build custom smartphone chips, with Chinese firm Luxshare handling co-design and manufacturing. The collaboration, flagged by TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, targets a 2028 production launch. News of the deal sent Qualcomm’s premarket shares jumping 12% on Monday.
Five Magnificent Seven names in three days
Because the S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, those five names drive a disproportionate share of the index. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) all report Wednesday, with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) following Thursday. That weighting explains why the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ has run 13% over the past month while the broader S&P trailed slightly behind.
Wall Street is leaning bullish into the prints. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider is forecasting the S&P 500 reaches 7,600 by year-end, and hyper-scalers are expected to spend $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Capex commentary from the four cloud stocks will set the tone for chip and power names through the summer.
Oil reprices the risk
WTI crude trades near $91 a barrel, up 6% in a single session, after President Trump canceled plans to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran. Brent briefly cleared $108. ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson said “the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels.” Energy strength flows through to the index’s oil majors but pressures the inflation path the Fed wants to see.
What the cross-currents mean
Two signals say investors are calm. The VIX sits near 19, in the normal range, and the 10-year Treasury yield is steady near 4.34%. The discordant note is University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 53.3, deep in pessimistic territory, even as small caps (IWM up 12% YTD) and mega-cap tech rip higher. Equities are pricing AI-driven earnings; consumers are pricing their grocery bill.
Watch cloud capex guidance Wednesday night, Apple services revenue Thursday, and any Iran headline that pushes WTI back toward the $115 April high. Powell speaks into all of it at his second-to-last meeting as Fed chair.
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