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Investors are watching Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY | WDAY Price Prediction) ahead of its fiscal first-quarter results expected after the bell today, May 21, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. With a new CEO and an AI pivot underway, this report carries unusual weight.
An AI Reset Under a Returning Founder
Co-founder Aneel Bhusri returned as CEO, replacing Carl Eschenbach, and used the Q4 FY26 call to frame what he called “Chapter 4”, a renewed focus on innovation and agentic AI inside HR and finance workflows.
Last quarter set a high bar. Q4 FY26 revenue came in at $2.532 billion, beating the $2.523 billion estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.47 versus $2.32 expected. Subscription revenue rose 16%, and the company closed FY26 with $2.78 billion in free cash flow, up 27%. Yet shares have struggled, down 41.05% year to date and 53.76% over the past year, as investors weigh whether AI investment will pressure margins before it drives the next leg of growth.
Q1 FY27 Company Guidance and Full-Year Targets
| Metric |
Q1 FY27 Guide |
FY27 Guide |
| Subscription revenue |
$2.335B (+13%) |
$9.925B–$9.950B (+12–13%) |
| Non-GAAP operating margin |
30.5% |
~30% |
| Professional services |
$180M |
$710M |
| Free cash flow |
n/a |
$3.180B (+15%) |
Prior-year Q1 revenue was $2.240 billion with EPS of $2.23.
Agentic AI Traction Will Set the Tone
I will be watching three things closely tonight. First, agentic AI monetization. Workday delivered 1.7 billion AI actions in FY26 and generated over $100 million in new annual contract value from emerging AI products in Q4, with ARR from those solutions now over $400 million. Any progress on the 12 organically built role-based agents moving to general availability will matter.
Second, deal cycles. Enslin acknowledged that some net-new large enterprise deals are taking longer to close, particularly in federal, state, and local governments and healthcare. Investors will look for whether those pipelines were converted in Q1.
Third, the margin trajectory. Workday’s CFO, Zane Rowe, flagged that Workday is prioritizing incremental investments in its agentic AI roadmap, meaning margin expansion will slow in the near term. The 30.5% Q1 target is the line in the sand.
Context heading in: Workday has beaten EPS and revenue in all four quarters of FY26, and Polymarket traders put the beat probability at 87.5%. Insider activity skews toward retention grants rather than open-market selling.
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