The stock market has spent the past three and a half years doing something few investors expected after inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and recession warnings dominated headlines. Instead of breaking down, corporate America kept producing stronger earnings, consumers kept spending, and artificial intelligence sparked a wave of investment unlike anything seen in decades.
While every bull market eventually ends, history suggests this one has earned a place among the strongest ever recorded at this stage of its life. That doesn’t guarantee another leg higher, but it does change how investors should think about today’s market.
A Bull Market Rarely Starts This Strong
According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 95% since the bull market began near the end of 2022. Looking back to 1928, that places today’s rally within the top 10% of all bull markets at a comparable point in the cycle.
The comparison becomes even more striking when stacked against history.
| Bull Market After Roughly 3.5 Years | S&P 500 Return |
| Median historical bull market | ~35% |
| Top 25% of historical bull markets | ~50% |
| Current bull market | ~95% |
In other words, today’s market has produced nearly double the return generated by even the top quartile of historical bull markets over the same timeframe.
Even more notable, Goldman Sachs found this rally has spent almost two consecutive years inside that top-decile ranking, interrupted only briefly during the March-April 2025 correction. Since that correction bottomed in April 2025, the S&P 500 has rebounded 51%, reinforcing just how persistent buying pressure has remained.
Why This Rally Looks Different
History offers plenty of examples of explosive markets that eventually collapsed under their own weight. The late-1990s dot-com boom is the obvious comparison, but the similarities only go so far.
Unlike many speculative rallies, this advance has been supported by rising corporate earnings. Goldman Sachs notes that much of the market’s appreciation has come alongside improving profit expectations and heavy investment in AI infrastructure rather than valuation expansion alone. Forward price-to-earnings multiples have risen, but not nearly enough to explain a market that has almost doubled.
Companies including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) have translated AI enthusiasm into real revenue growth, expanding cash flow, and record capital spending. Investors aren’t simply paying more for the same earnings — they’re paying for businesses generating larger profits than they did just a few years ago.
Granted, that doesn’t mean risks have disappeared. Valuations remain elevated by long-term measures, including the Shiller CAPE ratio, which sits near historical highs. Rich valuations have historically translated into more modest future returns, even if they haven’t necessarily marked immediate market tops.
History Suggests Momentum Can Last
One of the biggest investing mistakes is assuming a market has gone “too far” simply because it has risen a long way.
Ironically, history often shows the strongest bull markets continue outperforming longer than investors expect. Many legendary advances, including those following the financial crisis in 2009, compounded gains for years after already posting above-average returns.
Goldman Sachs believes today’s cycle remains supported by earnings growth rather than widespread speculative excess. While investor optimism has climbed above historical averages, measures of market exuberance remain below the extremes reached during the dot-com bubble or the 2021 meme-stock frenzy.
That doesn’t eliminate the possibility of corrections. Markets rarely move higher in a straight line. But the underlying drivers remain fundamentally stronger than many previous late-cycle rallies.
Key Takeaway
In short, this bull market has already entered rare historical territory. A roughly 95% gain since late-2022 places it among the strongest rallies recorded at this point in a cycle dating back nearly a century. That doesn’t make it the greatest bull market ever — longer-lived advances still hold that distinction — but it does suggest this rally has been built on more than speculation alone.
Smart investors shouldn’t confuse elevated valuations with an automatic sell signal. Earnings growth, AI-driven investment, and resilient corporate balance sheets continue to provide support. Ultimately, history suggests that while future returns may moderate from here, one of the market’s strongest bull runs may still have unfinished business.
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