Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates continues to hold heavy stakes in the mega-cap technology names powering the AI buildout, and three of the most closely watched positions are Amazon, NVIDIA, and Alphabet.
Each of the three trades at a very different point on the risk-reward curve as investors sort out which hyperscalers are converting massive capital expenditure into durable earnings power. Here is a research perspective on each at current prices.
Amazon at $247.23: AWS Reacceleration in Focus
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) screens attractively on fundamentals. Q1 FY2026 delivered EPS of $2.78 versus a $1.73 consensus, a 60.69% beat, with revenue up 16.6% year over year to $181.52 billion.
AWS reaccelerated to 28% growth, its fastest pace in 15 quarters, at a 37.7% operating margin. The custom chips franchise (Graviton, Trainium, Nitro) is now above a $20 billion revenue run rate with triple-digit growth.
Valuation is the pitch. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 29 against a $314.23 analyst target and 62 Buy or Strong Buy ratings out of 66, implying roughly 27% upside. YTD gains of 7.11% trail the S&P 500’s 9%, which is what makes the setup notable if AWS and advertising keep compounding. Analyst targets are just one input, and the earnings trajectory supports the thesis.
NVIDIA at $202.81: AI Factory Buildout Thesis
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) continues to screen well on growth and returns. Q1 FY2027 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85.2% YoY, with Data Center at $75.25 billion (+92%) and Networking up 199%.
Non-GAAP gross margin held at 75%, and free cash flow hit $48.55 billion. Q2 guidance of $91 billion excludes any China Data Center compute, meaning the reacceleration is happening despite a total China blackout.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 23 with a PEG of 1, remarkable for a business generating a 65.6% operating margin. The $302.31 analyst target implies about 49% upside, and Jensen Huang calls the AI factory buildout “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”
With $119 billion in supply commitments and shares up just 8.88% YTD versus the S&P 500’s 9%, the risk-reward profile remains constructive.
Alphabet at $346.77: A Talent Test to Watch
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) presents a more mixed near-term setup. The fundamentals look pristine: Q1 FY2026 EPS of $5.11 crushed the $2.63 consensus by 94.10%, and Google Cloud grew 63% to $20.03 billion with backlog nearly doubling QoQ to over $460 billion. Search revenue still expanded 19%, and Gemini API traffic runs at 16 billion tokens per minute.
The caution is about cost and competitive optics. Free cash flow fell 46.63% YoY as CapEx more than doubled, and 2026 capital spending is guided at $175 billion to $185 billion. A high-profile AI talent exodus in late June, including Transformer co-author Noam Shazeer, sent shares down 5% and delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro.
Shares are up 10.93% YTD, ahead of the S&P 500’s 9%, and the $433.51 analyst target implies roughly 25% upside, but the forward P/E of 25 already reflects Cloud momentum.
Investors may want to watch for a clean Gemini 3.5 launch and a quarter proving CapEx converts to Cloud operating leverage before revisiting the thesis.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks