Andreas Halvorsen’s Viking Global just gave retail investors a five-name research list. The latest 13F filing, holdings as of March 31, 2026 and filed May 15, 2026, discloses the fund’s five largest long US-listed common stock and ADR positions. Every one of them carries a specific 2026 catalyst, and four of the five carry a BUY signal from our price-prediction model with 0.9 confidence. Here is how each one screens right now, ranked from the most overlooked to the loudest payoff.
1. Fortive (The Quiet Compounder)
Fortive (NYSE:FTV | FTV Price Prediction) is the smallest name Halvorsen is riding, and that is exactly the point. Post the June 2025 Ralliant spinoff, the “new Fortive” is a leaner, two-segment industrial software and healthcare instruments compounder with an aggressive buyback engine. This is the kind of unloved industrial the Street forgets while chasing GPUs.
The Q1 2026 earnings report did the talking. Adjusted EPS of $0.70 came in ahead of the $0.64 consensus, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 140 basis points to 29.3%, and management bought back roughly $500 million in shares in the quarter, bringing the three-quarter total since the spin to about $1.8 billion. CEO Olumide Soroye said Fortive is “currently trending toward the upper half” of the $2.90 to $3.00 FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance range.
Our model pegs the 1-year base case at $74.75, or 20.99% upside from $61.78, with a BUY rating. Analyst consensus is more cautious at 27% bullish and 60% neutral, target $64.23. That gap between the quantitative model and sleepy sell-side coverage is exactly the setup Halvorsen tends to exploit. Buy-worthy on the sell-side apathy alone.
2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (The AI Backbone)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) is the obvious heavyweight and the one nobody in AI infrastructure can route around. Roughly 90% of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors critical for AI’s future development are manufactured in Taiwan, and TSMC is the whole edge.
Yesterday’s Q2 2026 report cemented it. EPS came in at $4.31 versus $3.89 estimated, a 10.89% beat, on $40.2 billion in revenue, up 36.0% year over year. 7nm-and-below nodes now account for 77% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 30% and 2nm making its commercial debut at 3%. Q3 guidance calls for $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion in revenue, with full-year growth “slightly above 40%” in USD.
Our base case targets $488.71, or 23.82% upside from $394.68, and the 5-year base case models $744.42, an 88.61% total return. With 89% bullish analysts and zero sell ratings, this is a BUY. The tell for what comes next: rate-sensitive financials that turn a falling deposit cost into a widening moat.
3. Visa (The Payments Hyperscaler)
Visa (NYSE:V) sits on a toll booth on every card swipe on the planet, and management is now reframing the company as a “Visa as a Service” payments hyperscaler. That framing reflects the operating leverage that keeps flowing to the bottom line.
Q1 FY2026 (reported January 29, 2026) delivered non-GAAP EPS of $3.17 versus $3.14 expected on revenue of $10.90 billion, up 14.6% year over year. Payments volume rose 8% in constant dollars, cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe climbed 11%, and processed transactions grew 9% to 69.4 billion. Cash generation is the punchline: operating cash flow hit $6.78 billion, up 25.65%, with $21.1 billion in buyback authorization remaining.
The Polymarket crowd is pricing in 88% odds that Visa beats its next quarterly earnings report. Our model targets $392.41, a 9.49% base-case upside, with analysts more bullish at a $401.47 consensus target and 93% bullish ratings. Our model rates this BUY, though the base-case upside is narrower than TSM or FTV. The bigger dislocation sits one ticker down.
4. Charles Schwab (The NIM Expansion Trade)
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) is where the falling-rate playbook meets the world’s largest retail brokerage. The thesis is mechanical: deposit costs collapse faster than asset yields, net interest margin expands, and earnings compound.
Q1 2026 laid the receipts on the table. EPS of $1.43 came in ahead of the $1.39 consensus, and the mechanics were textbook: net interest revenue jumped 16% to $3.14 billion, net interest margin expanded to 2.88% from 2.53%, and the average rate paid on deposits collapsed from 0.72% to 0.20%. Alongside that, core net new assets reached $140 billion, total client assets rose 19% year over year to $11.77 trillion, and Schwab bought back $2.4 billion of stock while raising the dividend 19% to $0.32.
Polymarket has 91% odds Schwab beats the next quarterly earnings report. Our model targets $121.14, an 18.87% base-case upside from $101.91, and the 5-year base case runs to $174.15, a 70.89% total return. Rating: BUY. Now for the punchline: the one Halvorsen holding down double digits year to date.
5. Disney (The Reset Trade)
Disney (NYSE:DIS) is down 11.68% year to date while streaming is finally, structurally, profitable. That is the setup. When a broken narrative pivots to a printing narrative, the re-rating is where the money lives.
Q2 FY2026 reset the story. Adjusted EPS of $1.57 came in ahead of the $1.50 consensus, revenue rose 6.5% to $25.17 billion, and entertainment SVOD operating income jumped 88% to $582 million, marking the first double-digit margin at 10.6%. Experiences delivered a record Q2 at $9.49 billion in revenue, up 7%, with domestic parks per-capita spending up 5%. Management raised the FY2026 buyback target to at least $8 billion, with $5.5 billion already completed in H1, and guided FY2026 adjusted EPS growth of roughly 16%, with double-digit growth again in FY2027.
Here is the divergence to trade around: Polymarket assigns just a 10% probability that Disney+ reaches 150 million total users by September, while 27 analysts rate Disney Buy or Strong Buy versus 1 Sell, with a consensus target of $127.64. Our model targets $109.53, or 12.6% upside, and the 5-year bull case runs to $199.16, a 104.75% total return. Rating: BUY on the streaming inflection, with the caveat that the crowd is not yet convinced. That is precisely why the payoff exists.
The Read
Four of Halvorsen’s top five (FTV, TSM, SCHW, DIS) screen as BUY with double-digit base-case upside in our model; V rates BUY with tighter room to run. The catalysts are non-overlapping: an industrial spinoff compounding buybacks, a 2nm ramp, a payments toll booth, a NIM expansion cycle, and a streaming margin inflection. The Viking book is deliberately diversified across these catalysts. Retail investors have the 13F snapshot. What they do with it before the next quarter of earnings reports closes the window is the only question left.
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