Top Wall Street Veteran: The Stock Market Is “Shrugging Off” Every Major Headwind. Here’s Why

Roger Altman, founder and senior chairman of Evercore (NYSE:EVR | EVR Price Prediction), made an appearance on CNBC on August 3 to argue that the stock market is absorbing every macro punch thrown at it.

As Altman said: “I just think the market is resilient. Look at the headwinds. It’s shrugging off the Iran war, energy costs, and now a little rise in interest rates or a medium rise in interest rates. But I don’t think those headwinds are enough to destabilize the market.”

The S&P 500 is up 11.11% year-to-date through August 3, 2026, and 21.87% over the past 12 months. The VIX sits at 17.09 as of July 30, 2026, comfortably inside the 15 to 20 “normal” band despite a March spike to 31.05.

Earnings Strength Is Driving the Market Higher

Altman points to the majority of S&P 500 companies delivering monster earnings this quarter: “86% of the S&P 500 companies beat consensus. And there was another measure that it was the strongest quarter in five years,“ he said. That aligns with the BEA’s read on corporate profitability, which showed total corporate profits of $4,426.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 12.8% year over year, the highest quarterly reading on record. Manufacturing profits rose to $773.3 billion, and information sector profits climbed to $352.5 billion, both large jumps versus a year earlier.

Strong Consumer Spending Drives Earnings Strength

Altman pointed to consumer spending as a driver behind the broad-reaching earnings strength: “Consumer spending was up 3.2%. There’s a measure called final sales to private domestic consumers up 3.9%. Capex very strong, centered around computer spending, but strong.”

Personal consumption grew 3.2% in Q2 2026, with goods spending running at 5.2%, even as the headline GDP number came in at 1.5%, dragged lower by a 11.5% surge in imports and a -0.8% government contribution. Total personal consumption expenditures reached $22.18 trillion in June 2026. Private domestic demand is doing its job.

AI’s $2.1 Trillion Question Remains Unanswered

On the AI capex debate hanging over the S&P 500’s largest mega-caps, Altman split the difference. “I think AI is revolutionary myself, even more than a lot of people think. And if I had to bet, I’d say it’s going to be some big winners here. But there’s a lot of concern over the amount of spending and whether it can earn a good return. And there’s no way to know yet,“ he said.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Asset Management has flagged the same tension, noting hyperscaler capex has consumed roughly 95% of operating cash flows over the last 12 months versus about 80% in 2019, and that the five largest hyperscalers issued about $90 billion in credit markets through the end of October 2025. Vanguard’s outlook pegs realized and expected AI-scaler capex through 2027 at $2.1 trillion. Whether that pile earns its cost of capital is the multitrillion-dollar unknown Altman flagged.

Key Takeaways

Altman’s argument ultimately rests on the strength of corporate earnings, consumer spending, and private investment. Those forces have allowed the market to withstand war, volatile energy prices, and interest rates that have remained higher than many investors expected.

Three variables will test that resilience next: whether third-quarter earnings can extend the current beat rate, whether massive AI investments begin producing measurable revenue for customers, and whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals continued patience on additional rate cuts. As long as profits and private demand remain strong, Altman believes today’s headwinds are unlikely to destabilize the market.

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