Live: Will Rigetti Deliver Strong Results in Tonight’s Q2 Earnings?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Rigetti’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

In May of 2026, Rigetti announced they had signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in potential funding over three years.

The proposed CHIPS Act-backed award would support research addressing major obstacles to scaling superconducting quantum computers, although the Commerce Department would receive an equity stake consistent with the final funding amount.

Rigetti ended the second quarter with $541.3 million in cash and investments and no debt. That balance sheet gives the company substantial runway to fund its technology roadmap, including a planned investment of up to $100 million in the United Kingdom.

Rigetti reaffirmed its goal of developing systems with approximately 1,000 qubits, 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, and gate speeds below 50 nanoseconds within roughly three years.

Its recently launched 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system currently achieves approximately 99.1% median two-qubit gate fidelity and 60-nanosecond gate speeds.

Rigetti has already demonstrated higher two-qubit fidelity of 99.8% on nine-qubit systems and 99.6% at the 36-qubit level.

Rigetti Computing just reported earnings, with shares initially down 4% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $5.138 million vs. $5.13 million expected
• Adjusted EPS: Loss of $0.05 vs. loss of $0.05 expected

Quick Read:

Rigetti’s revenue edged past expectations, while its adjusted loss matched Wall Street’s estimate.

Revenue soared 185% year over year, but losses widened by 25%, keeping profitability concerns firmly in focus.

1. Warrant liability whipsaw. GAAP results remain hostage to non-cash mark-to-market swings on derivative warrants. Q1 26 posted a $53.70 million favorable swing; Q3 25 absorbed a $181.96M charge. Expect another distorted headline number.
2. Insider selling pressure. Senior leadership disposed of roughly 702,214 common shares at $20 to $26 in May and June, including a 499,328-share CTO sale on May 29.
3. Options skew. The August 28 put/call ratio of 4.89 and September 4 ratio of 3.8 signal aggressive downside hedging into the post-earnings window.
4. FX and geopolitics. The $100 million UK deployment introduces GBP exposure, alongside India, Japan, and Italy subsidiary plans, all vulnerable to deteriorating international trade relations.

Bull Case

• Q1 2026 revenue nearly tripled to $4.4M YoY, with Novera QPU shipments and the $8.4M C-DAC order supporting H2 momentum.
• Analyst consensus target of $29.65 implies 78.78% upside, with 9 Buys versus 4 Holds.
• Shares rallied 26.93% over the past week into the report, hinting at positive positioning.

Bear Case

• Consensus EPS sits at -$0.05, a slight deterioration from Q1’s -$0.04.
• Q2 2025 revenue fell 41.64% YoY and EPS missed by 225%, illustrating lumpiness risk.
• Insiders were net sellers, with CTO David Rivas disposing of 499,328 shares at $25.396.
• Stock remains down 24.24% YTD despite the rebound.

With Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) set to report at 4:05 PM ET, here are some key KPIs to watch in tonight’s report:

KPIs to Watch

• Novera QPU revenue recognition. CFO Bertelsen said the remainder of the $5.7 million order slate lands in Q2.
• Progress toward the 99.5% two-qubit fidelity target on Cepheus-1-108Q.
• Timing on the $8.4 million C-DAC India system.

Price Action and Triggers

Shares gained 26.93% over the past week but sit -24.24% year-to-date.

History cautions: RGTI’s average one-week post-earnings move is -7.19% despite frequent beats. Revenue materially above $4.4 million, plus a fidelity milestone, could counter that pattern.

With Rigetti’s earnings call set for after today’s close, here’s what to listen for from CEO Subodh Kulkarni and the team.

Top Analyst Questions

1. Will Q2 revenue sustain Q1’s $4.4M pace, or slip on hardware-timing lumpiness?
2. Status of the $8.4 million C-DAC 108-qubit order and the Japanese Novera shipment?
3. Progress toward the 150+ qubit target by year-end 2026?
4. Update on DARPA QBI Stage B selection?
5. Cadence of the $100 million UK deployment spend?

Key Topics And Buzzwords

• Listen for “median two-qubit gate fidelity,” “chiplet-based architecture,” “NVQLink,” “fault-tolerant,” and “quantum advantage.”

Red Flags

• Operating loss expanding beyond Q1’s $26 million, further dilution signals, or slipped roadmap milestones. Note the 33 recent insider transactions skewing net selling.

Rigetti Computing reports second-quarter 2026 earnings at about 4:05 PM ET, with shares trading around $17.04 following a -30% performance so far this year.

Investors will focus on Novera QPU deliveries, early traction for the Cepheus-1-108Q system, and Rigetti’s expansion in the United Kingdom.

The company’s $569 million cash cushion gives management substantial runway to execute its quantum-computing roadmap, although widening operating losses continue to raise the stakes.

Rigetti trades at roughly 199x forward sales, leaving little room for execution problems. A clean Novera rollout and credible fidelity update could support the 74% upside implied by Wall Street’s average price target.