The initial reaction to RGTI’s earnings miss was overblown and the stock after- hours is climbing back to even. This very well could open trading tomorrow up after updates from management in the earnings conference call that will kick off in under 30 minutes.
Rigetti’s relevance hinges more on technological milestones than near-term revenue — and the 36-qubit launch plus fidelity improvement offer validation of its chiplet strategy.
This is my checklist of what I was looking for:
Negative (less important): Revenue miss, continued operating losses, and shrinking gross profit.
Mixed (medium importance): CapEx and OpEx rising, but balance sheet strong and cash burn manageable.
Positive (keeps thesis intact): Major milestone with 36Q launch and clear roadmap toward 100+ qubits.
Cepheus-1-36Q system now live on Rigetti QCS and soon on Microsoft Azure.
Error rates halved from Ankaa-3; first 99.5% fidelity at multi-chip scale.
$350M ATM raise completed, bringing total liquidity to $571.6M.
Revenue declined 41.7% YoY and missed Street estimates.
Management reiterated plans to release a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by year-end, maintaining its 2025 technology targets.
| Metric | Guidance Update | vs. Prior View | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 Tech Roadmap | On track | Same | ⚖️ Flat |
| Commercial Availability | 36Q system launched | New milestone | 📈 Raised |
| Revenue Outlook | Not reaffirmed | N/A | ⚖️ Flat |
“We continue to achieve our ambitious roadmap goals, most recently by demonstrating the industry’s largest multi-chip quantum computer with impressive performance.”
— Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, CEO
This quote highlights management’s emphasis on technology leadership, particularly Cepheus-1-36Q’s error rate reductions and chiplet scalability — areas critical for DARPA contracts and future commercial traction
Rigetti posted another top-line decline and a wider-than-expected net loss, as revenues fell 41.7% YoY and missed estimates. However, the company announced general availability of its 36-qubit multi-chip system (Cepheus-1-36Q), delivering 99.5% gate fidelity — a key milestone in the roadmap toward utility-scale quantum computing. The long-term tech progress may offset near-term revenue softness.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.80M | $1.87M | ❌ Miss |
| EPS (GAAP) | –$0.13 | –$0.04 | ❌ Miss |
Rigetti has missed EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Market reaction has been consistently negative post-earnings — with a 14-day average move of –1.96%
| Quarter | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | –1.23% | –0.45% | –2.86% |
| Q4 2024 | +2.94% | +4.76% | +6.48% |
| Q3 2024 | –4.76% | –6.25% | –7.14% |
| Q2 2024 | –3.03% | –3.45% | –3.33% |
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Rigetti Computing (Nasdaq: RGTI) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings after the close, with Street estimates pointing to another sequential revenue decline and flat EPS losses. The quantum hardware company remains firmly in R&D mode, and this quarter’s update will focus less on financials and more on progress tied to its DARPA roadmap, chiplet scaling, and government contract execution.
With funding from the U.S. NQI bill still pending, and revenues largely tied to milestone-based awards, investor focus remains squarely on Rigetti’s technical delivery against long-term commercialization targets.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after Rigetti’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
Wall Street consensus for Q2 2025:
Full- year FY 2025 forecast:
This outlook implies a –19.6% revenue decline vs. FY2024 ($10.79M) and a narrowed loss from last year’s –$0.29 EPS.
Chiplet Scaling and Fidelity Milestones
Management reiterated its midyear target to deploy a 4×9 qubit chiplet architecture and exceed 99.5% fidelity. Success here is key for Phase B selection in DARPA’s utility-scale program.
DARPA and UK Government Awards
Rigetti advanced to Phase A in DARPA’s benchmark initiative and was awarded UK pilot contracts to upgrade to 36-qubit systems. While revenues are modest (~$1M), the credibility and future funding stakes are high.
Cash Burn and OpEx Trajectory
OpEx was $22.1M in Q1, with CFO signaling a potential step down in coming quarters. Cash reserves total $237.7M following Quanta’s $35M investment; liquidity runway extends well into 2026.
Quantum Advantage Roadmap
CEO Subodh Kulkarni reiterated expectations that commercial quantum utility is still 3–5 years away. Investors will evaluate the pace of engineering progress over monetization in the near term.
NQI Reauthorization Impact
U.S. government funding from the National Quantum Initiative has yet to pass. This continues to delay follow-on contracts with DOE and academic customers — a gating item for near-term revenue stabilization.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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