Yesterday, Elon Musk quote-posted a viral X thread claiming Delta customers were rebooking to competitors specifically to access Starlink Wi-Fi. His caption was just eight words: “I warned them. It will get much worse.” The post has drawn more than 50,000 likes and 4,600 reposts.
Earlier this year, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL | DAL Price Prediction) selected Amazon’s Leo satellite network for free in-flight Wi-Fi, with service beginning in 2028. Musk has previously (and publicly) criticized that decision, calling it a painful and expensive choice.
Yesterday’s post is just another chapter in that very public disagreement.
What Delta Actually Chose, And Why
Delta CEO Ed Bastian’s public rationale was that Amazon beat Starlink on price and on technology. On the July 10 earnings call, Bastian reiterated the roadmap: “And starting in ’28, Amazon Leo will unlock the next generation of onboard connectivity, reach, and personalization.” Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has close to 400 satellites in orbit and expects initial service this year, though the deal is not financially material to a company with $200.6 billion in quarterly revenue.
The contrast with United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) is real. United, whose Starlink partnership is with Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), has installed the service on 450 aircraft and targets close to 1,000 Starlink-equipped aircraft by year-end, with fleet-wide coverage by 2027. CEO Scott Kirby has told investors Starlink “is going to lead to big share gains for us.”
Musk’s argument I think can be summed up as “it’s already beginning.”
Of course, it should be noted here that Delta serves more than 200 million customers annually across up to 5,500 daily flights. A few hundred visible complaints measures posting behavior on X, not travel demand across the network.
Where A Real Passenger Shift Would Show Up
For investors, the question is where defections would actually appear in reported numbers. Four line items matter.
Unit revenue on long-haul routes. This is where continuous connectivity is most valuable. Delta’s Q2 total unit revenue grew 12.4%, with international unit revenue up 8%. United’s Q2 TRASM grew 12.1%, with Atlantic PRASM up 12.1% and Pacific PRASM up 14%. Persistent underperformance by Delta on transcontinental and transatlantic PRASM, relative to United, would be a reasonably clean signal.
Corporate contract share. Business travelers who need working Wi-Fi would defect first. Delta reported corporate sales up more than 20%, and premium corporate sales up more than 25%. United reported contracted business revenue flown up 27% and bookings up 30%. Watch whether the gap widens.
Loyalty and co-brand economics. Delta’s Q2 American Express remuneration hit $2.40 billion, up 16%. Full-year Amex remuneration is expected at $9 billion. Deterioration here would matter far more than any X thread.
Premium mix and load factors. Delta’s Q2 premium revenue rose 17%; loyalty revenue rose 19%. Diversified streams were 61% of total revenue. Route-level paid load factor in premium cabins is where a real shift bites first.
Your Next Checkpoint
Delta and United are both expected to report their next quarterly earnings in October. Of course, both quarters will land before any Amazon Leo hardware appears in a Delta cabin.
Delta is guiding to Q3 EPS of $2.00 to $2.50 and full-year EPS of $6.50 to $7.50. Its Q2 8-K also announced a 15% dividend increase. United raised full-year EPS guidance to $9.00 to $11.00. Delta is up about 21% year to date; United is up ~4%.
Airline switching costs are network, schedule, hub geography, and elite status. Onboard Wi-Fi is a tiebreaker. It becomes a driver only when unit revenue says so, and right now it does not.
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