Something Big Could Happen To NVIDIA Stock on August 26

By Joel South Published Aug 21, 8:00AM EDT

Quick Read

NVDA enters August 26 with a 4-quarter beat streak, 95% Polymarket beat odds, and a $91 billion guide that already excludes China revenue.
NVDA's Data Center grew 92% to $75 billion last quarter, outscaling AMD while trading at a lower earnings multiple than Broadcom despite faster growth.
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Something Big Could Happen To NVIDIA Stock on August 26 — © BenBen Lam via YouTube

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) heads into its Aug. 26 FY Q2 2027 report with fundamentals, capital return and a demand backdrop that make it one of the cleanest large-cap AI setups in the market. This is a compounder with a catalyst.

Three Reasons The Setup Is Clean

1. Guidance is conservative, and the beat streak is intact: Management guided Q2 revenue to $91 billion plus or minus 2% with non-GAAP gross margin of 75%, and that guide excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China. NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates by 5.42%, 6.58%, 4.84%, and 3.96% across the last four quarters. Polymarket implies a 0.953 probability of another beat on Aug. 26.

2. Demand visibility is unprecedented: Jensen Huang said “demand has gone parabolic” and NVIDIA reiterated “full confidence in the $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue we foresee from 2025 through calendar 2027.” Supply-related commitments now sit at $119 billion. That is booked backlog.

3. Capital return has become material: The board authorized an additional $80 billion buyback on top of $38.5 billion remaining, and NVIDIA raised the quarterly dividend from 1 cent to 25 cents. Q1 free cash flow was $48.5 billion. Retirement accounts want that combination.

Head-To-Head Beat

The obvious alternatives are Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). NVIDIA’s Data Center segment alone printed $75.2 billion in a single quarter, up 92% year over year, with Data Center Networking up 199%. AMD’s data center franchise is a fraction of that scale. Broadcom is a real AI ASIC winner, but it trades at a higher earnings multiple than NVIDIA’s P/E of 44 while growing slower than NVIDIA’s 85.2% Q1 revenue growth. You are paying up for less growth.

One Risk, Dismissed

China. NVIDIA shipped zero H20 units to China in Q1, still beat, and still guided to $91 billion for Q2 with China excluded. If export restrictions were a thesis breaker, the numbers would already show it. They do not. Still, the setup into the Aug. 26 after-close report favors continued execution against a conservative guide.

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About the Author Joel South →

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.